20260313申万期货品种策略日报-软商品-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - In the short - term, the global sugar import is weak in the third quarter, and high inventories will continue to suppress sugar prices. The Brazilian production will be the key variable determining the global sugar pattern. If the sugar - making ratio or agricultural yield in central - southern Brazil declines, the supply - demand balance still has room for adjustment [3]. - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward overnight and is at the upper edge of the range. The Iran situation may push up the ethanol - to - sugar price, and the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 season may decline. In the medium - term, the expected decline in Brazilian production may offset part of the supply surplus. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is boosted by the external market, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment on the market [4]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward overnight with an upward - shifted price center. The adjustment of the market due to the escalation of the Middle - East situation may be basically over, and the callback range is expected to be relatively limited. In the long - and medium - term, cotton prices may still have room to rise under the expectation of tight supply and demand. Domestically, with increased consumption and low carry - over inventories from last year, the supply this year is expected to be tight. Policy - regulated planting area may support cotton prices in the long - and medium - term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Sugar Futures: For domestic sugar futures contracts (SR2609, SR2605, SR2603), the prices of SR2609 and SR2605 decreased slightly, with a decline of - 0.02% and - 0.13% respectively, while SR2603 remained unchanged. The prices of 11 - sugar futures contracts (11 - sugar2610, 11 - sugar2607, 11 - sugar2605) increased, with an increase of 1.29%, 1.60%, and 1.29% respectively. There were changes in positions and trading volumes, and the price differences between different contracts also changed [2]. - Cotton Futures: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward overnight, and the price center moved up [4]. Spot Market - Sugar Spot: The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou increased from 5450 to 5480. The basis in Liuzhou and Kunming changed compared with the previous value. The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar (both quota - within and quota - outside) decreased compared with the previous value [2]. Supply and Demand - Global Sugar: The consulting firm StoneX estimated that the global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season will be significantly reduced from 2.9 million tons to 0.87 million tons, a 70% decrease from the previous estimate. The global sugar supply is expected to increase by 2.6% year - on - year to 194.6 million tons, consumption is expected to increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 193.7 million tons, and the ending inventory is expected to increase by 1.2% year - on - year to 74.6 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 38.5%, slightly lower than the average of the past five years [3]. - Thailand Sugar: As of March 11, 2025/26 season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume increased by 0.48% year - on - year to 88.3668 million tons, sugar production increased by 2.98% year - on - year to 9.7927 million tons [3]. - Brazilian Sugar: In the first week of March, Brazil exported 444,608.35 tons of sugar, with a daily average export volume of 88,921.67 tons, an 8% decrease compared with the daily average export volume in March of the previous year [3]. Inventory and Positions - Sugar Inventory and Positions: The total of sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts remained unchanged at 17,026. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - sugar increased, and the long - to - short ratio increased from 0.43 to 0.44 [2].