2026年3月13日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Precious metals fluctuated and declined. The overall CPI in the US in February met expectations, and the impact of oil prices was not yet reflected. The conflict between the US and Iran remained stalemate, oil prices soared again, inflation expectations rose, and the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts were revised downwards, suppressing the performance of precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to move up. Market concerns about the US fiscal sustainability are still intensifying, and with the reconstruction of the global political and economic order, the diversification of global central bank reserve assets, and the continuous progress of the de - dollarization process, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium resonate with both industrial and financial attributes, following the overall sector trend but with relatively larger fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Gold Futures: For沪金2606, the previous day's closing price was 1155.52, yesterday's closing price was 1151.52, with a decrease of 4.00 and a decline rate of - 0.35%. The trading volume was 65754, and the open interest was 137300. For沪金2604, the previous day's closing price was 1151.980, yesterday's closing price was 1148.100, with a decrease of 3.880 and a decline rate of - 0.34%. The trading volume was 163830, and the open interest was 105803 [2] - Silver Futures: For沪银2606, the previous day's closing price was 22256, yesterday's closing price was 22062, with a decrease of 194 and a decline rate of - 0.87%. The trading volume was 414009, and the open interest was 206073. For沪银2604, the previous day's closing price was 22409, yesterday's closing price was 22225, with a decrease of 184 and a decline rate of - 0.82%. The trading volume was 89591, and the open interest was 90728 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Gold Spot: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1150.30, yesterday's closing price was 1146.26, with a decrease of 4.04 and a decline rate of - 0.35%. The price of London gold (USD/ounce) was 5182.88 the previous day and 5077.94 yesterday, with a decrease of 104.94 and a decline rate of - 2.02% [2] - Silver Spot: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 21999, yesterday's closing price was 21851, with a decrease of 148 and a decline rate of - 0.67%. The price of London silver (USD/ounce) was 85.73 the previous day and 83.78 yesterday, with a decrease of 1.95 and a decline rate of - 2.27% [2] 3.3 Inventory - Gold Inventory: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 105,420 kg, an increase of 510 kg from the previous value. The current inventory of COMEX gold is 32,656,407 ounces, a decrease of 64302 ounces from the previous value [2] - Silver Inventory: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver is 309,974 kg, an increase of 58115 kg from the previous value. The current inventory of COMEX silver is 344,324,824 ounces, a decrease of 216978 ounces from the previous value [2] 3.4 Related Market Indicators - The current value of the US dollar index is 99.74, an increase of 0.53 from the previous value. The current value of the S&P 500 index is 6,672.62, a decrease of 103.18 from the previous value. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 4.27%, an increase of 0.06% from the previous value. The price of Brent crude oil is 101.75, an increase of 8.12 from the previous value. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8752, an increase of 0.0052 from the previous value [2] 3.5 Derivatives - The current position of the SPDR Gold ETF is 1,076 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous value. The current position of the SLV Silver ETF is 15,539 tons, unchanged from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold is 160,145, an increase of 968 from the previous value. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 23,338, an increase of 1078 from the previous value [2] 3.6 Macro News - The US Treasury is providing a temporary authorization to allow countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea to expand the global coverage of existing supplies [3] - Iran reported that a US military tanker was shot down by a resistance organization in western Iraq, and all crew members died. The US military said a KC - 135 tanker crashed in western Iraq during the "Epic Rage" operation, and the cause was not due to enemy fire or friendly fire. Another KC - 135 was hit but landed in Israel [3] - CME warned that if the US government intervenes in the oil futures market, it will cause an epic disaster [3] - Iran's armed forces stated that any attack on its energy facilities and ports will be met with a devastating counter - attack [3] - Chile signed a joint statement on critical minerals and rare earths with the US [3]