山金期货黑色板块日报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of black - series commodities are running strongly in the short - term. The overall supply - demand of the market is recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but inventory is still rising. The market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic view on the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil has briefly boosted market confidence, and the policies of the "Two Sessions" did not exceed market expectations. The futures price has broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and it is more likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short - term [2]. - The iron ore market is entering the consumption peak season. The production of five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills has rebounded. The hot - metal production has decreased significantly, but it will gradually recover. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production costs of both supply and demand sides. Rumors of tightened liquidity in the spot market have led to an accelerated increase in iron ore prices. On the supply side, shipping has gradually recovered to a high level with the improvement of the weather. The arrival volume has declined, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high. The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Situation: After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the crude oil price remained strong after a spike and fall. The prices of black - series commodities were running strongly in the short - term. The overall supply - demand of the market was recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but inventory was still rising. The market had relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic view on the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil briefly boosted market confidence, and the "Two Sessions" policies did not exceed market expectations. Technically, the futures price broke through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and it was more likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short - term [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, operate cautiously, and patiently wait for a pull - back to go long at low prices [2]. - Data Summary: - Price: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3115 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day and 1.43% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3269 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day and 1.77% from last week. - Production: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel production was 173.31 tons, up 4.97% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production was 301.11 tons, down 2.75% from last week. - Inventory: The social inventory of five major varieties was 1403.13 tons, up 8.29% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory was 637.75 tons, up 12.33% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 381.61 tons, up 6.78% from last week [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - Market Situation: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The production of five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills has rebounded. The hot - metal production has decreased significantly, but it will gradually recover. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production costs of both supply and demand sides. Rumors of tightened liquidity in the spot market have led to an accelerated increase in iron ore prices. On the supply side, shipping has gradually recovered to a high level with the improvement of the weather. The arrival volume has declined, but the port inventory has continued to rise and reached a record high. Technically, the futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with a volatile mindset, do not chase up or sell down. Try to go long lightly at low prices during the pull - back of the futures price [4]. - Data Summary: - Price: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 787.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.45% from the previous day and 4.72% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 103.74 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.65% from the previous day and 4.73% from last week. - Supply: The Australian iron ore shipping volume was 1552.2 tons, down 6.91% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipping volume was 469.6 tons, down 26.30% from last week. - Inventory: The port inventory totaled 17117.86 tons, up 0.15% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 11780.21 tons, up 0.59% from last week [5]. 3.3. Industry News - As of the week of March 12, the threaded steel production increased for two consecutive weeks, the factory inventory increased for eight consecutive weeks, the social inventory increased for ten consecutive weeks, and the apparent demand increased for three consecutive weeks. The threaded steel production was 195.3 tons, an increase of 12.69% from last week; the threaded steel social inventory was 654.55 tons, an increase of 2.63% from last week; the threaded steel apparent demand was 176.81 tons, an increase of 80% from last week [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants across the country was - 3 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 22 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 51 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 52 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 45 yuan/ton [7]. - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 75.849 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. The inventory days were 33.9 days, a decrease of 1.4 days from the previous period [7].