观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260313

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemicals, evaluates their market trends and price movements, and gives corresponding investment advice based on fundamental data and news [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][6]. - Silver: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][7]. - Copper: Inventory increase limits price increase, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][12]. - Zinc: It shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the trend intensity is -1 [2][15]. - Lead: The increase of domestic inventory puts pressure on the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][18]. - Tin: It is in a state of shock adjustment, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][21]. - Aluminum: It fluctuates at a high level, the trend intensity is 1; Alumina: The cost is rising, the trend intensity is 0; Casting aluminum alloy: It follows electrolytic aluminum, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][25]. - Platinum: Geopolitical disputes have arisen again, and precious metals are under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0; Palladium: It stays at a low level, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28]. - Nickel: Tight supply at the mine end supports the current situation, while inventory accumulation in smelting limits its flexibility, and the trend intensity is 0; Stainless steel: Macroeconomic risk preferences cause disturbances, and the actual cost center moves up, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][32]. Energy - Crude oil: Not in the content, but relevant information affects other commodities. - Coking coal: The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is fermenting, and it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][62]. - Coke: The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is fermenting, and it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][61]. - Steam coal: Supply and demand are becoming more abundant, and coal prices are回调, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][67]. Chemicals - Para-xylene: The supply side has reduced production, and the unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 2 [2][74]. - PTA: The supply side has reduced production, and the unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 2 [2][74]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][74]. - Rubber: It fluctuates widely, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][82]. - Synthetic rubber: It fluctuates widely within the day, and the price center moves up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][86]. - LLDPE: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, and the shrinkage of cracking supply continues, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][89]. - PP: The supply of various raw materials is restricted, and upstream production starts to shrink, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][89]. - Caustic soda: Supply is passively reduced, and the market fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][92]. - Paper pulp: It runs in a fluctuating manner, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][94]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][100]. - Methanol: It fluctuates widely at a high level, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][103]. - Urea: It fluctuates widely, and the fundamentals support the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][107]. - Styrene: It fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][110]. - Soda ash: The spot market changes little, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][112]. - Propylene: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end lead to an expected reduction in supply, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][117]. - LPG: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][117]. - PVC: Supported by cost and reduced supply, the market fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][125]. - Fuel oil: It maintains a rebound and is still in a high - volatility environment in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0; Low - sulfur fuel oil: It hit the daily limit during the day session, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market decreased marginally, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][128]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: The market sentiment is strong, but beware of a sharp fall after a rise, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][163]. - Soybean: The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market rebounds and fluctuates, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][163]. - Corn: It runs in a fluctuating manner, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][166]. - Sugar: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][173]. - Cotton: It is waiting for new drivers, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][174]. - Eggs: It fluctuates within a range, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][178]. - Hogs: There is passive inventory accumulation, and the spot price is declining, with a trend intensity of -2 [2][181]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][185]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Geo - political sentiment dominates, and the fluctuations are large, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][130]. Fibers - Staple fiber: It fluctuates at a high level, and attention should be paid to upward risks, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][145]. - Bottle chips: It fluctuates at a high level, and attention should be paid to upward risks, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][145]. Paper - Offset printing paper: It is advisable to wait and see, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][148]. Oils - Palm oil: Driven by positive news, the oil market runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][157]. - Soybean oil: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it fluctuates at a high level in the short term, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][157].