油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报--20260313

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Protein Meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong trend. Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slower than the same period, and the USDA report data is neutral to bullish, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. In China, rising oil prices and increased shipping costs support the price of imported soybeans, and the rumor of state reserve replenishment also drives up the futures price of soybean meal. However, due to sufficient domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and the expected increase in soybean supply after April, the upward space of the medium - term price is expected to be limited [3]. - Fats and Oils: Night trading of fats and oils was strong. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production, exports, and imports in February had significant changes, and the de - stocking rate was lower than expected, with slow relief of inventory pressure. The rise in crude oil prices drives up the futures price of vegetable oils, and the short - term price volatility of fats and oils is expected to be large due to the complex macro - environment [3]. 3. Market Data Summary 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8632, 9684, and 9769 respectively, with price changes of 62, 158, and - 9, and percentage changes of 0.72%, 1.66%, and - 3.15% respectively. The previous day's closing prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 3054, 2326, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 14, 39, and 26, and percentage changes of - 0.46%, 1.71%, and 0.29% respectively [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread is now 18 (previous value 20), and the M9 - 1 spread is now - 58 (previous value - 56) [2]. 3.2 International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4400 ringgit/ton, 1226 cents/bushel, 67.22 cents/pound, and 320 dollars/ton respectively, with price changes of 90.0, 11.5, 0.0, and 3.3, and percentage changes of 2.09%, 0.95%, 0.06%, and 1.04% respectively [2]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of various varieties have different percentage changes. For example, the spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8900 and 8850 respectively, with a percentage change of 1.37%. The spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3130 and 3180 respectively, with percentage changes of - 3.69% and - 2.75% [2]. - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis and spreads of various varieties have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 456, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is now - 170 (previous value - 120) [2]. 3.4 Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts - Import Profit: The current import profits of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is now - 703 (previous value 22) [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The current warehouse receipts of various varieties have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 25,714 (previous value 26,414) [2]. 4. Industry Information - Indonesia: In 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil production increased by 7.3% year - on - year to 51.66 million tons. As of the end of 2025, the palm oil inventory was 2.07 million tons, a 25% decline from the previous month. The completion time of the road test of B50 biodiesel is expected to be later than the target set by the Energy Ministry [3]. - Brazil: As of last Thursday, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was 51%, an increase of 12% from last week but lower than 61% in the same period [3].