GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2026-03-13 01:53Macro Overview - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the February CPI in the U.S. met market expectations, but this may represent a "calm before the storm" given the recent oil price shocks. The market is now focused on the March CPI data [3] - Following the CPI announcement, U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold prices fell, while the dollar rose, reflecting concerns about future inflation paths. The market now expects only 1.09 rate cuts in 2026 [3] - The report highlights persistent service inflation and rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may adopt a wait-and-see approach in its upcoming meetings [3] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated after the May Federal Reserve chair transition, with potential for more pronounced rate cuts in the second half of the year [3] Fixed Income - The report discusses the potential and necessity for a reduction in interbank deposit rates, influenced by the new pricing self-discipline mechanism effective from December 1, 2024. This mechanism requires non-bank interbank deposits to align with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate [5] - The growth rate of large banks' interbank deposits significantly slowed from 44.0% in November 2024 to 5.3% in January 2025, but then rebounded to 48.9% by January 2026, indicating a possible need for rate cuts [5] - A reduction in short-term rates could open up new space for long-term rates, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield may drop to 1.6%-1.7% by mid-year [5] Communication Industry - Broadcom has launched its 3nm 400G PAM-4 DSP, which optimizes solutions for 1.6T transceivers, enhancing bandwidth density and efficiency for AI data centers [6][7] - The introduction of the Taurus DSP is seen as a catalyst for future development, with New Yisheng being the first to launch a 448G full-featured DSP optical module, emphasizing the strategic importance of partnerships in expanding customer opportunities [8] Automotive Industry - NIO's Q4 results exceeded expectations, with strong sales of the ES8 and a positive outlook for 2026, projecting sales of approximately 480,000 vehicles and total revenue of 124.2 billion yuan [9] - The company anticipates gradual improvement in profitability, with non-GAAP net profits expected to reach 4.6 billion yuan in 2026, increasing to 73.1 billion yuan by 2028 [9] Computer Industry - Tonghuashun has launched the iFinD MCP, designed for AI interactions, integrating core financial data to support local deployment of intelligent analysis systems [10] - The company expects significant revenue growth, projecting operating revenues of 84.13 billion yuan in 2026, increasing to 123.54 billion yuan by 2028, with a maintained "buy" rating [10]