棉花：等待新的驱动20260313

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The overall trading atmosphere in the domestic cotton - textile enterprise market is steadily improving, with the downstream shipment volume continuously increasing. However, the ICE cotton futures failed to maintain their gains due to insufficient fundamental drivers and concerns about the economic outlook caused by high oil prices [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 15,545 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% and a night - session closing price of 15,600 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.35%. CY2605 closed at 21,735 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.72% and a night - session closing price of 21,625 yuan/ton with a night - session decrease of 0.51%. ICE cotton 5 closed at 65.21 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.05%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 727,497 lots, a decrease of 217,389 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,154,293 lots, an increase of 2,721 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 16,137 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 14,724 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 12,325, an increase of 173 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 446, a decrease of 164. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 219, an increase of 105 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 168, a decrease of 163 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,794 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,713 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 16,894 yuan/ton, an increase of 193 yuan or 1.16% from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 16,883 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan or 1.01% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 16,848 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 1.08% from the previous day. The Cotlook:A index was 75.75 cents/pound, an increase of 0.55 cents or 0.73% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day [1] - Spread Data: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was mostly weak, point - price trading was sluggish, and fixed - price trading was relatively good. The mainstream basis quotes remained stable, and some high - basis quotes for cotton spot were slightly lowered. For 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5, many sales basis were at CF05 + 1250~1350 and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some fixed - price transactions of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 were at 16,800 (on a conditioned weight basis) and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises: The overall trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was steadily improving. The downstream shipment volume continued to increase, and the Shanghai Textile Exhibition promoted active business docking in the industry, further warming up the market trading atmosphere. Recently, high - count pure - cotton yarns of 40S and above performed relatively prominently. Some spinning mills' order schedules had exceeded one month, and the quotes of large spinning mills showed a steady - to - rising trend [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures closed slightly lower by 0.05% yesterday. In the morning, ICE cotton futures rose. After the USDA released the weekly US cotton export data, ICE cotton futures reached the daily high, with the December contract hitting a new high this year. However, due to insufficient fundamental drivers and concerns about the economic outlook caused by high oil prices, ICE cotton failed to maintain its gains and finally returned to near the previous day's closing price [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]