国新国证期货早报-20260313

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - On March 12, 2026, A-share market showed a mixed trend. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.10% to 4129.10 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.63% to 14374.87 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.96% to 3317.52 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.46 trillion yuan, a decrease of 67.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on March 12, closing at 4687.56, a decrease of 16.94 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - On March 12, the weighted index of coke fluctuated within a range, closing at 1741.2, a rise of 26.4. The weighted index of coking coal also fluctuated, closing at 1181.8 yuan, a rise of 24.8 [2][3]. - Coke's spot price increased, with general coking profit and a slight decrease in daily production. Coke inventory rose slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The supply of carbon elements was abundant, and downstream molten iron remained at a low - season level with general steel profit [4]. - Coking coal's spot price increased. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the Strait of Hormuz. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1449 vehicles. Coal mines resumed work well, with weekly production quickly reaching a high level. Spot auction transactions decreased, and the transaction price dropped slightly. Terminal inventory continued to decline, and there was no significant restocking [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the decline of US sugar and the increase of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract continued to fluctuate narrowly on March 12, rising first and then falling. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. StoneX lowered its forecast of the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to only 870,000 tons, mainly due to the pessimistic outlook of India's sugar production. It also reduced India's sugar production forecast from 32.3 million tons to 29.7 million tons. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to be 40.5 million tons this year. In the 2026/27 season, although the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to increase by 1.7% to 620.5 million tons, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to remain stable [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated widely on March 12, rising first and then falling. In the morning, it was boosted by the rising crude oil price, but then the price dropped due to concerns about the potential decline of global economic growth. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower. In February, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% [4][5]. 2.4 Palm Oil - On March 12, the continuous high - level operation of crude oil made the biodiesel policy outlook positive. The palm oil futures reached a one - year high. The main contract P2605 closed at 9684, up 1.66% from the previous trading day. In 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil production increased by 7.3% year - on - year to 51.66 million tons. As of the end of 2025, the palm oil inventory was 2.07 million tons, a 25% decline from the previous month. Indonesian palm oil producers are trying to increase production in 2026, but weather challenges may pose obstacles [5]. 2.5 Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 12, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1225.75 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.95%. The rising crude oil price supported the soybean price as soybean oil is widely used in biodiesel production. More than half of Brazil's soybeans have been harvested, and its export capacity will increase rapidly. Due to the cheaper supply of newly harvested Brazilian soybeans, the export demand for US soybeans has slowed down. Last week, the net sales volume of US soybeans was 466,258 tons, in line with market expectations, but the cumulative sales volume this year was still nearly 19% lower than the same period last year. - Domestically, on March 12, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3054 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.46%. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 767,000 tons, an increase of 56,600 tons from the previous week. It is expected that the soybean crushing volume will rise to about 2 million tons this week, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The Middle East conflict has led to shipping disruptions and increased logistics costs, which has increased the shipping freight and cost of imported soybeans in China, supporting the domestic soybean meal price. It is recommended to focus on South American weather changes, the progress of the Middle East situation, and the rhythm of soybean arrivals [5]. 2.6 Live Pigs - On March 12, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11130 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%. The supply side is relatively loose, with the increase of large pigs held back before, the increase of large - scale farm slaughter, and the high frozen product inventory. The inventory of breeding sows is still at a high level, and the production capacity is large. Coupled with the improvement of breeding efficiency, the effective supply is continuously loose. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, pork consumption has entered the off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is low, and the demand side's ability to absorb is insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices. Overall, the live pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of breeding sow reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract closed at 101,010 yuan per ton, with an opening price of 100,100 yuan per ton, a highest price of 101,430 yuan per ton, and a lowest price of 100,100 yuan per ton. The trading volume was 88,000 lots, the open interest was 192,000 lots, and the settlement price was 100,860 yuan per ton. The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was 100,670 yuan per ton, with a discount of 340 yuan per ton compared with the futures price, and the spot discount widened. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 425,145 tons, an increase of 33,616 tons from the previous trading day, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The smelting output on the supply side increased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was obvious. The seasonal recovery on the demand side is still in progress, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm [5]. 2.8 Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 792 on March 12, with a lowest price of 787, a highest price of 796, and a closing price of 789, with an increase of 317 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Customs data showed that the log imports from January to February decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot - end price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on the price [5][7]. 2.9 Iron Ore - On March 12, the main iron ore 2605 contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.34% and a closing price of 795.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period decreased significantly month - on - month, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory was at a historical high. After the Two Sessions, steel mills may have certain procurement and restocking needs, and the short - term iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend [7]. 2.10 Asphalt - On March 12, the main asphalt 2606 contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 5.68% and a closing price of 3980 yuan. The geopolitical conflict has high uncertainty, and the market is worried about raw material supply. The operating load is maintained at a low level, and the middle and lower reaches are more wait - and - see. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. 2.11 Cotton - On the night of March 12, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15,600 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 173 lots compared with the previous trading day. According to the survey of the China National Cotton Reserves Corporation, in early March 2026, the operating rate of surveyed cotton spinning enterprises was 85.8%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points month - on - month and 0.8 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate in Hebei, Fujian, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, and Hunan provinces reached over 90% [7]. 2.12 Steel - On March 12, rb2605 closed at 3120 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3275 yuan per ton. The black futures all rose, mainly driven by the macro - environment and cost. Since the market has digested the information of the release of strategic petroleum reserves by IEA member countries, investors continue to focus on the shipping interruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices have risen sharply again. Coking coal and iron ore futures have actively risen. In the short term, driven by the rising futures, steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 12, ao2605 closed at 2865 yuan per ton. The positive driving force for alumina is weak. Although the FOB price of imports has decreased, it is offset by the rising freight, and the arrival cost has no advantage compared with the domestic market, so the import window remains closed. On the supply side, some alumina plants in Guizhou and Guangxi will start the roasting furnace maintenance in the second half of this month, with a total impact on the daily output of about 2500 tons and the annual production capacity of about 1 million tons. Although it will lead to a phased decline in production and a slight reduction in supply pressure, the overall oversupply pattern remains unchanged. In the现货 market, the quotes of holders have been slightly increased, and the procurement demand of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises is average, only maintaining basic rigid demand, and the trading atmosphere is generally light [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 12, al2604 closed at 25,240 yuan per ton. The Middle East situation remains complex, and it is difficult to ease significantly in the short term. The Strait of Hormuz remains semi - blocked, with only sporadic ships passing through. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the ratio of molten aluminum is relatively low, the backlogged and in - transit goods continue to be transported, and the social inventory pressure is high, while the warehousing rhythm has slowed down. On the demand side, there is a strong fear of high prices. The high aluminum price suppresses demand, the terminal's willingness to receive goods is average, the downstream operating rate has limited recovery, and the support for the spot is limited [7].