市场降息预期再度延后，贵?属震荡运

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed again, and precious metals are oscillating. Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, pushing up oil prices, which has led to a delay in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a strengthening of the US dollar index, jointly suppressing precious metals. The report expects short - term precious metals to maintain range - bound oscillations, and long - term optimism for gold is maintained [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - Logic: Gold prices oscillated narrowly and weakly during the day, suppressed by the strengthening of the US dollar index and the postponed market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The Middle East conflict has intensified, with WTI oil prices rising by more than 8% during the day. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant disruption in global oil supply, increasing inflation concerns and postponing the market's expectation of the Fed's first rate cut in 2026 from July to October [3]. - Outlook: In the short term, gold may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran conflict, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the US PCE data on March 13, and the Fed's interest rate decision on March 17 - 18. In the long term, the main line of the weakening of the US dollar's credit remains unchanged, and if the market switches to the stagflation trading logic, it will bring a phased upward impetus to gold prices [3]. Silver - Logic: Silver prices oscillated narrowly during the day, also suppressed by the strengthening of the US dollar index and the postponed market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The short - term macro - driving factors for silver are the same as those for gold, facing the suppression of "rising energy prices - increasing inflation concerns - postponed interest rate cut expectations". Attention should be paid to the possible switch to stagflation trading and the pressure on its industrial attributes. The spot driving force for silver has weakened, with the持仓 of the COMEX silver 2603 contract continuously decreasing and the low delivery declaration volume in March, further alleviating the risk of a squeeze [4]. - Outlook: It is expected that silver will maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term, and its long - term support is still significant [4]. Commodity Index - Special Indices: The commodity index was 2609.50, up 1.71%; the commodity 20 index was 2954.75, up 1.15%; the industrial products index was 2557.76, up 2.95%; the PPI commodity index was 1483.24, up 1.53% [44]. - Precious Metals Index: On March 12, 2026, the precious metals index was 4426.10, with a daily decline of 1.58%, a 5 - day increase of 1.32%, a 1 - month increase of 0.42%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.74% [45].