原油：能源安全保障继续

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The policy signals from the "Two Sessions" for crude oil present triple characteristics: short - term stable growth to support oil product demand, medium - term energy security to enhance the strategic attribute of crude oil, and long - term green transformation to force the upgrading of refining and chemical industries [4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Stable growth remains the main tone, and crude oil demand expectations are supported by policies - The "Two Sessions" continue to prioritize stable growth and expanding domestic demand. Policy support in consumption and investment stabilizes the overall demand for crude oil rather than driving high - speed growth. It provides a bottom - up support for diesel, jet fuel, and industrial energy use expectations, with a "lower bound support and upper bound constraint" effect on the oil product chain [6]. - In 2025, domestic refined oil consumption decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, indicating that the core contradiction of crude oil demand has shifted from total expansion to structural optimization [6]. II. The geopolitical statements during the "Two Sessions" are worthy of attention, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil will not easily disappear - The official statements on the Middle East situation and global supply chain stability during the "Two Sessions" imply that energy supply security, maritime transportation security, and industrial chain resilience have become part of macro - policy considerations [7]. - For China, which highly depends on overseas crude oil imports, the statements on preventing the spill - over of the Middle East situation and opposing decoupling mean that geopolitical premium, freight premium, and supply chain premium in crude oil prices are likely to be important variables affecting market expectations, and freight rates and related insurance will have a more significant weight in crude oil pricing [7]. III. The weight of energy security has significantly increased, and the demand attribute of crude oil SPR continues to be strengthened - The "Two Sessions" emphasized enhancing supply guarantee capabilities for energy and other aspects, and proposed energy - related projects and goals. The government also plans to formulate an energy - power - building plan and strengthen the clean and efficient use of fossil energy [8]. - In 2025, China's domestic crude oil production was 216 million tons, and imports were 578 million tons, with about 40 import source countries. The dual attributes of oil as "security support + industrial raw material" remain prominent, and the government's SPR demand will be an important pricing factor in the crude oil market [8]. IV. Summary and Outlook - Stable growth and expanding domestic demand will support crude oil demand, and China's import demand will provide a bottom - up support for international oil prices [9]. - Geopolitical disturbances and supply chain security will continue to affect crude oil risk pricing [9]. - The co - promotion of energy security goals and green transformation deployment means that the strategic position of crude oil in China's energy system will not be easily weakened in the short term, but the structural differentiation within the refining and chemical industry will continue to deepen [9].