白糖：原油上涨带动，震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The price of white sugar is driven by the rise in crude oil and shows a volatile and slightly strong trend [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Price and Spread Data: The raw sugar price is 14.38 cents per pound with a year-on-year increase of 0.13; the mainstream spot price is 5440 yuan per ton with a year-on-year increase of 10; the futures main contract price is 5416 yuan per ton with a year-on-year decrease of 7. The 59 spread is -31 yuan per ton with a year-on-year decrease of 6; the 91 spread is -121 yuan per ton with no year-on-year change; the mainstream spot basis is 24 yuan per ton with a year-on-year increase of 17 [1] - Macro and Industry News: White sugar is linked to crude oil through ethanol and has received continuous attention from funds. As of February 28, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season in India increased by 12% year-on-year. India approved an additional 500,000 tons of exports, with a previous approved export quota of 1.5 million tons. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons). As of the end of January, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season was 4.03 million tons (-790,000 tons), and the sugar production rate was 12.05%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.14 percentage points. Attention should be paid to the changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder and the sales progress in the producing areas [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), the consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and the import volume to be 5 million tons. As of the end of September, the national sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons (+870,000 tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9% (a decrease of 2.6 percentage points). As of the end of December, the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 sugar season in China were 1.77 million tons (+310,000 tons) [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season (previously a shortage of 230,000 tons), and a global sugar supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season. As of February 1, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season decreased by 2.16 percentage points year-on-year, with a cumulative sugar production of 40.24 million tons (+340,000 tons), and the cumulative MIX was 50.74%, a year-on-year increase of 2.60 percentage points. As of February 28, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season was 24.63 million tons (+2.63 million tons). As of February 15, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar season was 6.84 million tons (-350,000 tons) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of white sugar is 1, indicating a slightly strong trend [4]