金融期货早班车-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, in the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On March 12, the four major A - share stock indices adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1% to 4129.1 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.63% to 14374.87 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.96% to 3317.52 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.24% to 1383.65 points. Market trading volume was 24,606 billion yuan, a decrease of 677 billion yuan from the previous day. Among industry sectors, coal (+4.24%), public utilities (+1.89%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.32%) performed well; national defense and military industry (-2.33%), machinery and equipment (-1.86%), and communications (-1.53%) performed averagely. In terms of market strength, IM>IF>IH>IC, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,492/102/3,891 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net capital inflows were - 246, - 266, 108, and 404 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 197, - 122, +100, and +219 billion yuan respectively [1]. - Basis and Annualized Yield: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 124.51, 103.07, 45.56, and 7.16 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 14.36%, - 11.86%, - 9.35%, and - 2.32% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 19%, 15%, 8%, and 30% respectively [1]. - Trading Strategy: In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: On March 12, treasury bond futures showed a slight upward trend. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.02%, TF rose 0.02%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.12% [1]. - Cash Bonds: The current active contract is the 2606 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250024.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.011, and an IRR of 1.43%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.028, and an IRR of 1.36%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250025.IB, with a yield change of - 0.9bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.034, and an IRR of 1.34%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.054, and an IRR of 1.32% [1]. - Funding Situation: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 245 billion yuan and withdrew 230 billion yuan, with a net injection of 15 billion yuan [1]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term trend is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [1]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of March, the prosperity of various sectors declined slightly [7]. - Based on the comparison of meso - level data of each module with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year change of month - on - month), scores are given according to the degree of change. Positive scores represent an improvement in prosperity, negative scores represent a decline in prosperity, and a score of zero represents little change in prosperity [9][10].