螺纹钢：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡；热轧卷板：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both rebar and hot-rolled coil are in a state of long-short sentiment gaming and wide-range oscillations [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,120 yuan/ton and 3,275 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 13 yuan/ton (0.42%) and 12 yuan/ton (0.37%). The trading volumes were 765,830 lots and 320,782 lots, and the open interests were 1,676,246 lots and 1,243,723 lots, with decreases of 46,176 lots and 21,377 lots respectively [3]. - Spot Price: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Tianjin increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of RB2605 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 4 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2605 - RB2610 and HC2605 - HC2610 remained unchanged, while the spreads of HC2605 - RB2605 and HC2610 - RB2610 increased by 1 yuan/ton. The spot coil - rebar spread remained unchanged [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Steel Production and Inventory: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on March 12, rebar production increased by 21.99 million tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 5.85 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 23.73 million tons. Rebar inventory increased by 18.49 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 22.89 million tons. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 78.58 million tons, and that for hot-rolled coil increased by 13.79 million tons, with a total increase of 106.73 million tons [4]. - Steel Import and Export: In February 2026, China imported 36.9 million tons of steel, a decrease of 9.0 million tons (19.6%) from the previous month, with an average price of 1,470.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 52.0 US dollars/ton (2.9%). From January to February, the cumulative steel imports were 82.7 million tons, a decrease of 22.9 million tons (21.7%) year - on - year. China imported 9,763.8 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 1,474.7 million tons (13.1%) from the previous month, with an average price of 101.3 US dollars/ton, basically the same as the previous month. From January to February, the cumulative iron ore imports were 21,002.3 million tons, an increase of 1,906.4 million tons (10.0%) year - on - year. China exported 783.7 million tons of steel, an increase of 8.3 million tons (1.1%) from the previous month, with an average price of 729.1 US dollars/ton, an increase of 45.5 US dollars/ton (6.7%). From January to February, the cumulative steel exports were 1,559.1 million tons, a decrease of 138.2 million tons (8.1%) year - on - year [5]. - Price Index: In February 2026, the national consumer price index increased by 1.3% year - on - year. The national producer price index for industrial products decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month [5]. - Policy News: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on February 27 to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five - Year Plan and the government work report. Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice on optimizing real estate policies on February 25, which took effect on February 26 [5]. - Steel Inventory of Key Enterprises: In mid - February 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1,812 million tons, an increase of 301 million tons (19.9%) from the previous ten - day period, 398 million tons (28.2%) from the beginning of the year, 199 million tons (12.3%) from the same ten - day period of the previous month, 139 million tons (8.3%) from the same ten - day period of last year, and a decrease of 86 million tons (4.5%) from the same ten - day period of the year before last [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].