情绪企稳后的二次拉升：能化板块的品种分化与关注重点

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The initial price increase of some chemicals was driven by the premium effect of geopolitical tensions, but as the market evolved, the strength of the fundamentals of each variety has become the decisive factor for the price increase. The market shows obvious differentiation characteristics. The price increase of the varieties with tight supply - demand patterns is relatively smooth, while the increase of those with weak supply - demand patterns is weak. At present, a defensive strategy should be adopted, and it is necessary to focus on the performance of varieties with tight and loose supply - demand patterns in the future [23][24][25] Summary by Directory 1. Changes in the Price Transmission Path of Chemical Products (1) Geopolitical Premium Driving Chemical Prices Up in the Early Stage - Last week, the market rise was mainly driven by the geopolitical event of the US - Iran conflict, which strengthened the market's expectation of a contraction in crude oil supply. This week, the price quickly corrected due to the cooling of market sentiment, profit - taking by some long - positions, and the exchange's increase in margin requirements [4] - The impact of price fluctuations shows obvious echelon differentiation. The first echelon includes crude oil, methanol, and LPG; the second echelon includes ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene; the third echelon includes PX, pure benzene, styrene, and ethylene glycol; the fourth echelon has relatively weak price linkage [5] (2) Later Gradually Turning to the Promotion of the Own Fundamental - The market driving logic is extending from simple cost transmission to supply - chain transmission, and the weight of fundamentals is gradually increasing. The first - echelon varieties are directly affected by supply shocks; the second - echelon ones are driven by both cost and supply; the third - echelon ones are demand - driven [11] 2. Analysis of Some Chemical Products (1) PX/PTA - The core logic of PX price increase has changed from cost increase to "real supply shock". The PX supply shock has become a reality, and the market's pricing of near - term supply tightness has been strengthened. PTA shows a game between "cost - driven" and "weak fundamentals". PX is the strongest link in the industrial chain, while PTA's rise depends more on cost promotion [14][15] (2) Pure Benzene/Styrene - Short - term geopolitical events have reconstructed the cost bottom line of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains. Styrene performs relatively strongly due to its better inventory structure. The supply of pure benzene in the Asian market is expected to be tight, and its future trend will be mainly affected by external factors. Styrene has strong future demand expectations, but there are also risks [17][18] (3) Methanol - The driving factor of methanol comes from the Middle East geopolitical situation, which directly affects supply expectations. The inventory has decreased, but in the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose once the geopolitical risk eases [19] (4) Plastics (PP, PE, PVC) - The three plastics show a differentiated market. PP is a cost - driven increase but has a "market without transactions" risk. PE is in a dilemma between cost and supply - demand. PVC is the weakest, and its price center may move down [20] 3. Overall Strategy for the Chemical Sector - At present, a defensive strategy should be adopted, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the next observation period, focus on the follow - up performance of varieties with tight and loose supply - demand patterns [25]