碳酸锂数据日报-20260313

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market has both increasing supply and demand, with downstream continuous replenishment of inventory, which supports prices. Under the pressure of risk aversion, the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate in the short term. The price decline is due to the intensification of the US - Iran situation leading to increased risk - aversion sentiment among funds, and the need for funds to take profits after the previous large increase in lithium carbonate prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 158,000 yuan, a decrease of 1,000 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 154,500 yuan, a decrease of 1,250 yuan [1]. - For lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2603 is 150,000 yuan, with a decline of 5.98%; lithium carbonate 2604 is 156,860 yuan, with a decline of 1.91%; lithium carbonate 2605 is 156,980 yuan, with a decline of 1.79%; lithium carbonate 2606 is 157,200 yuan, with a decline of 0.97%; lithium carbonate 2607 is 156,700 yuan, with a decline of 1.45% [1]. 3.2 Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 2,195 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 3,400 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 5,050 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 12,875 yuan, a decrease of 300 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 14,000 yuan, a decrease of 350 yuan [1][2]. 3.3 Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 55,475 yuan, a decrease of 245 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) is 212,050 yuan, a decrease of 200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) is 184,300 yuan, a decrease of 200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) is 185,750 yuan, a decrease of 250 yuan [2]. 3.4 Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan, an increase of 250 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,020 yuan, a decrease of 2,940 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first continuous contract is - 120 yuan, a decrease of 1,080 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second continuous contract is - 340 yuan, a decrease of 1,700 yuan [2]. 3.5 Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, in tons) is 98,959 tons, a decrease of 414 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, in tons) is 16,292 tons, a decrease of 1,184 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, in tons) is 45,647 tons, an increase of 1,890 tons; the other inventory (weekly, in tons) is 37,020 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, in tons) is 36,455 tons, a decrease of 284 tons [2]. 3.6 Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 156,628 yuan, and the profit is - 728 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally and the profit are not clearly stated in the report, only the profit is 942 yuan [3]. 3.7 Industry Situation - In January 2026, the new energy vehicle market operated steadily, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 0.945 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% and 1% respectively. In January, the export of new energy vehicles maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 vehicles exported, a year - on - year increase of 100% [3].