贵金属数据日报-20260313

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the precious metals market may continue to fluctuate. Long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still suggest buying on dips [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - On March 12, 2026, London gold spot was $5164.94/ounce, London silver spot was $85.99/ounce, COMEX gold was $5170.70/ounce, COMEX silver was $86.17/ounce, AU2604 was 1148.10 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 22225.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1146.00 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 21829.00 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 11, the price of gold and silver decreased, with gold down about 0.3% - 0.7% and silver down about 1.7% - 1.0% [3] 2. Spread/Ratio Price Tracking - On March 12, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.1 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 396 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 0.89 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 253 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 51.66, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 60.01, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.42 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 163 yuan/kilogram. Compared with March 11, the spreads and ratios had different degrees of change, with the largest change in the gold internal - external spread at - 145.7% [3] 3. Position Data - As of March 11, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1077.28 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15539.06048 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 213752 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 53607 contracts, the non - commercial net long position was 160145 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 34226 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 10888 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 23338 contracts. Compared with March 10, the positions of gold and silver had different degrees of change, with the largest change in the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver at 5.31% [3] 4. Inventory Data - On March 12, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 105420.00 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 309974.00 kilograms. On March 11, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 32720709 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 344541802 troy ounces. Compared with the previous day, the SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.49%, the SHFE silver inventory increased by 23.07%, the COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.22% [3] 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 12, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90, the US dollar index was 99.26, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.64%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.21%, the VIX was 24.23, the S&P 500 was 6775.80, and NYWEX crude oil was 88.41. Compared with March 11, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.06%, the US dollar index increased by 0.32%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.96%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.45%, the VIX decreased by 2.81%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.08%, and NYWEX crude oil increased by 2.34% [3] 6. Market Review - On March 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.66% to 1148.1 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 2.51% to 22062 yuan/kilogram [3] 7. Impact Analysis - Although multiple parties have released signals of conflict cooling and measures to stabilize oil prices, the issue of the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. Iran has confirmed the attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the new Iranian leader's first statement said the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed. Therefore, short - term oil price fluctuations may still be relatively severe, and precious metal prices are expected to continue to be affected by oil price fluctuations, showing a repeated shock trend. However, the US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners including China and the EU, and trade policy uncertainties have resurfaced. As time passes, the impact of oil price fluctuations on the precious metals market may weaken. Therefore, under geopolitical games, precious metal prices are expected to return to their own operating logic, and the downside space is limited [4] 8. Future Market Analysis - In the short term, the precious metals market may continue to fluctuate. In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies still suggest buying on dips [4]