金融期货早评-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The recent Middle - East geopolitical conflicts have become a core variable affecting the global macro - situation and financial markets. The US economic outlook faces greater uncertainty, while China's foreign trade shows strong resilience. Market sentiment is mainly affected by geopolitical risks, and the market is in a state of slow cooling. It is recommended to adopt a principle of "not predicting, but more responding" [1]. - In the short term, the RMB exchange rate is supported by the relatively strong US dollar index and is difficult to start a trend - based appreciation. In the long term, if the domestic economic fundamentals continue to improve, the RMB may show a mild appreciation trend [2]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the bottom supported by domestic policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the US - Iran conflict, the implementation effect of domestic policies, and the annual report disclosure [3][4]. - For treasury bonds, it is recommended to hold a small amount of long - term bottom positions and sell short - term long positions at appropriate high prices [5]. - The container shipping European line futures are expected to enter a high - level shock in the short term, with the price having a bottom support due to geopolitical event premiums, but the upward space being restricted by shipping companies' operational adjustment capabilities and potential regulatory interventions [7][8][9]. - The lithium carbonate futures are in a shock - adjustment stage, and the overall speculative sentiment is gradually decreasing [12]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures are in a wide - range shock. The photovoltaic industry is in the bottom stage of the current production capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand pattern [13][14]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to be shock - strong, alumina to be shock - sorted, and cast aluminum alloy to be shock - strong. For copper, the price is affected by factors such as the approaching FOMC meeting, the end of the Two Sessions, and the US - Israel - Iran conflict. Zinc is expected to be weak and sideways in the short term and strong in the medium term. Nickel - stainless steel is expected to be shock - strong. Tin is expected to be in adjustment, and lead is expected to be in shock [15][16][21]. - For oilseeds, it is recommended to hold long positions in the spread between months and stop profiting from widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For oils, the market rebounds following the crude oil market, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation and the US bio - fuel policy review results [27][28][29]. - For energy and oil and gas, the trading focus of the crude oil market is on the Middle - East situation, and the fuel oil market is strongly supported by supply - side constraints. The asphalt price follows the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline after the easing of the Middle - East situation [32][33][34]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are expected to have a bull - market foundation in the long term, but there is a risk of short - term adjustment. Gold and silver are strategically bullish, and dips are considered as opportunities to build long positions [37][38][39]. - For chemicals, pulp and offset paper futures are affected by geopolitical factors and are expected to be in a wide - range shock. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be strong before the resolution of the Strait of Hormuz issue, but attention should be paid to the callback risk. LPG is expected to be shock - strong, methanol may catch up with the increase of olefins next week, and plastics and PP are supported by cost and fundamental expectations and are expected to be strong [43][45][47]. - For rubber, it is recommended to be bullish on dips in the medium term, with light positions. Synthetic rubber may maintain a strong wide - range shock, and natural rubber needs to pay attention to supply and demand changes [56][57][87]. - For urea, the war risk is likely to trigger a market driven by international cost increase and domestic sentiment excitement. For glass and soda ash, soda ash supply pressure persists, and glass demand needs to be verified [59][60][62]. - For black commodities, steel prices are supported by the cost of furnace materials in the short term, but the rebound height is limited. Iron ore prices are short - term strong but the sustainability is doubtful. Coking coal and coke face short - term over - supply problems, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost but have limited upward space [68][71][73]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for pigs, it is recommended to sell call options on the main contract. Cotton prices are supported by domestic supply - demand tightening expectations but are restricted by the high internal - external price difference. Sugar futures are expected to continue the strong pattern. Eggs are expected to be shock - strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy call options on the main contract. Apples are expected to be in a strong - shock pattern, dates are expected to be in a low - level shock, and logs are affected by geopolitical sentiment and are recommended to be observed or traded in the range [79][81][83]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The Middle - East geopolitical conflicts have increased the uncertainty of the US economic outlook, while China's foreign trade shows strong resilience. The Fed's rate - cut rhythm is likely to be "slow at first and fast later", and attention should be paid to the risk of the US economy falling into stagflation [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: In the short term, the RMB is difficult to appreciate trend - based due to the support of the US dollar index. In the long term, it may appreciate mildly if the domestic economic fundamentals improve [2]. - Stock Index: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the bottom supported by domestic policy expectations [3][4]. - Treasury Bonds: Hold a small amount of long - term bottom positions and sell short - term long positions at appropriate high prices [5]. - Container Shipping European Line: Enter a high - level shock in the short term, with price support from geopolitical event premiums and upward space restricted by shipping companies' operations and regulations [7][8][9]. Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: In a shock - adjustment stage, with decreasing speculative sentiment [12]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: In a wide - range shock, the photovoltaic industry is at the bottom of the production capacity cycle [13][14]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is shock - strong, alumina is shock - sorted, and cast aluminum alloy is shock - strong [15]. - Copper: Affected by factors such as the FOMC meeting, the Two Sessions, and the US - Israel - Iran conflict [16][20]. - Zinc: Weak and sideways in the short term, strong in the medium term [21]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: Shock - strong [22][23]. - Tin: In adjustment [25]. - Lead: In shock [26]. Oils and Feeds - Oilseeds: Hold long positions in the spread between months and stop profiting from widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [27][28]. - Oils: Rebound following the crude oil market, pay attention to the Iran situation and the US bio - fuel policy review results [29][30]. Energy and Oil and Gas - SC Crude Oil: The trading focus is on the Middle - East situation, and attention should be paid to the Strait of Hormuz navigation situation [32]. - Fuel Oil: Strongly supported by supply - side constraints, the strong pattern is difficult to change in the short term [33]. - Asphalt: Follows the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline after the easing of the Middle - East situation [34]. Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: Bull - market foundation in the long term, short - term adjustment risk [37][38]. - Gold and Silver: Strategically bullish, dips are opportunities to build long positions [39][40]. Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: Affected by geopolitical factors, expected to be in a wide - range shock [43][44]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Strong before the resolution of the Strait of Hormuz issue, pay attention to the callback risk [45][46]. - LPG: Shock - strong [47][48]. - Methanol: May catch up with the increase of olefins next week [49][50]. - Plastic PP: Supported by cost and fundamental expectations, expected to be strong [51][52][53]. - Rubber: Bullish on dips in the medium term, synthetic rubber may maintain a strong wide - range shock [56][57][87]. - Urea: The war risk may trigger a market driven by international cost increase and domestic sentiment excitement [59]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Soda ash supply pressure persists, glass demand needs to be verified [60][62]. Black Commodities - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Supported by the cost of furnace materials in the short term, but the rebound height is limited [68]. - Iron Ore: Short - term strong but the sustainability is doubtful [69][71]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Face short - term over - supply problems [72][73]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: Supported by cost but have limited upward space [74][75]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Pigs: Sell call options on the main contract [79]. - Cotton: Supported by domestic supply - demand tightening expectations but restricted by the high internal - external price difference [80][81]. - Sugar: Expected to continue the strong pattern [82][83]. - Eggs: Shock - strong in the short term, buy call options on the main contract [84][85]. - Apples: In a strong - shock pattern [90][91]. - Dates: In a low - level shock [92]. - Logs: Affected by geopolitical sentiment, recommended to be observed or traded in the range [93][94].