格林大华期货早盘提示：有色与贵金属-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market is highly uncertain in the short term, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures fell 1.83% to $5084.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.85% to $83.95 per ounce. Shanghai gold night session closed down 0.94% at 1137.50 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed down 0.60% at 21706 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 12, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.429 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 1075.852 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust remained unchanged from the previous day, with the current holdings at 15539.06 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 0.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 99.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 3.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 19.5% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin ratio for certain contracts. For the gold AU2704 contract, the daily price limit is 17%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions is 18%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions is 19%. For the silver AG2703 contract, the daily price limit is 20%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions is 21%, and the trading margin ratio for general positions is 22% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 213,000, with an estimate of 215,000 and a previous value of 213,000 [1] - Iran's new supreme leader stated in his first statement that Iran will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new fronts may be opened if necessary. Trump said that the US makes a lot of money when oil prices rise and it is important to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. Iranian diplomatic officials said that some countries' ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and many ships can still pass through the strait if coordinated with the Iranian navy [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the US dollar index rose 0.48% to 99.74, strengthening for the third consecutive trading day. The yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to rise to 4.269%. Iran's new supreme leader's first statement showed a tough stance. ICE Brent crude oil closed up 10.62% to $101.75 per barrel on Thursday, closing above the $100 mark again after four years. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, COMEX gold and COMEX silver both declined on Thursday. The ongoing conflicts among the US, Israel, and Iran have supported the gold price to some extent due to market risk - aversion sentiment [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]