国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts, silver requires attention to liquidity contraction, copper's price increase is restricted by inventory growth, zinc shows a weak oscillating trend, lead's price is pressured by domestic inventory increase, tin is in an oscillating adjustment, aluminum is in a high - level oscillation, alumina's cost is rising, casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, platinum is pressured by geopolitical disputes, palladium is hovering at a low level, nickel's reality is supported by tight ore supply but its elasticity is restricted by smelting inventory accumulation, and stainless steel is affected by macro - risk preference with an upward - shifted cost center [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,153.06 with a daily decline of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 1,144.20 with a decline of 0.22%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 418,498, an increase of 25,719 from the previous day, and the position was 126,419, a decrease of 13,351 [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 105,033 kilograms, a decrease of 27 kilograms from the previous day [5]. - News: Iran's new leader stated that revenge will not be given up, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new battlefronts may be opened if necessary. Bond traders are no longer certain that the Fed will cut interest rates this year [5]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21,854 with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 21,546.00 with an increase of 1.53%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 526,514, a decrease of 187,374 from the previous day, and the position was 150,089, a decrease of 11,077 [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 294,823 kilograms, a decrease of 12,661 kilograms from the previous day [5]. - News: Similar to gold, there are geopolitical and interest - rate - related news [5]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,010 with a daily decline of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 100,860 with a decline of 0.15%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 199,621, an increase of 28,612 from the previous day, and the position was 581,288, a decrease of 4,115 [10]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 326,327, an increase of 5,911 from the previous day, and the inventory of London Copper was 312,350, an increase of 275 [10]. - News: The US - Iran conflict is intensifying, Brent crude oil has closed above $100 per barrel for the first time in 13 months, and the private credit market is under redemption pressure, causing a sharp decline in US stocks. The US has made some progress in obtaining strategic minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but there are issues such as regional conflicts and license disputes. Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the "unfair" business terms of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. Zambia aims to triple its copper production by 2031 [10][12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,300 with a daily decline of 0.35%, and the closing price of the London Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,313.5 with a decline of 0.81%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 109,003, an increase of 34,199 from the previous day, and the position was 72,726, a decrease of 1,494 [13]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 85,695 tons, an increase of 4,622 tons from the previous day, and the inventory of London Zinc was 98,750 tons, a decrease of 150 tons [13]. - News: The Trump administration plans to issue a 30 - day exemption order for the Jones Act to ease the logistics bottleneck of domestic fuel circulation. The shutdown of the Ras Laffan facility in Qatar has affected 20% of the global LNG supply, and Asian countries are facing a serious LNG shortage. The market no longer expects the Fed to cut interest rates this year [14][15]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,615 with a daily decline of 0.39%, and the closing price of the London Lead 3M electronic disk was 1,937.5 with a decline of 0.39%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 30,328, a decrease of 10,640 from the previous day, and the position was 62,266, an increase of 1,183 [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 63,269 tons, an increase of 6,371 tons from the previous day, and the inventory of London Lead was 284,500 tons, a decrease of 375 tons [16]. - News: The US - Iran conflict is intensifying, Brent crude oil has closed above $100 per barrel for the first time in 13 months, and the private credit market is under redemption pressure, causing a sharp decline in US stocks. The expectation of the Fed's easing policy is suppressed [17]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 393,500 with a daily decline of 0.89%, and the night - session closing price was 387,730 with a decline of 0.65%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 215,161, a decrease of 24,104 from the previous day, and the position was 33,098, a decrease of 884 [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 12,360, an increase of 2,329 from the previous day, and the inventory of London Tin was 8,630, an increase of 25 [20]. - News: Similar to other metals, there are geopolitical and macro - economic news [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25,240, an increase of 25 from the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,865, a decrease of 4 from the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,990, an increase of 105 from the previous day [23]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 131.00 million tons, an increase of 3.00 million tons from the previous day. The inventory of LME aluminum ingots was 44.73 million tons, a decrease of 0.28 million tons from the previous day [23]. - News: The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners including China, the EU, India, and Japan. The US Treasury Secretary said that escorting will be carried out as soon as the situation allows, and the Energy Secretary said it may be this month [25]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 564.65 with a decline of 0.16%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 416.60 with a decline of 1.80%. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 3,510 kilograms, a decrease of 2,485 from the previous day, and the position was 25,777, a decrease of 412 [26]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Platinum was 1 kilogram, and the inventory of NYMEX platinum was 582,441 ounces (previous day) [26]. - News: There are geopolitical news such as Trump's remarks on oil prices and Iran's stance [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 138,100, an increase of 940 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,285, an increase of 70 from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 491,504, an increase of 182,325 from the previous day, and the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 253,505, an increase of 44,161 from the previous day [30]. - Industry News: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026. The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala. There are also news about production quotas, accidents, and sanctions in the nickel industry [30][31][35].