20260313申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260313

Report Title - 20260313 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report [1] Core Views - Copper: The copper price closed 0.15% lower overnight. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profit is on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The copper price may fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand in the peak season [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed 0.25% lower overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand in the peak season [2]. Data Summary | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (CNY/ton) | Domestic Basis (CNY/ton) | Previous LME 3-Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 100,740 | 75 | 12,949 | -102.11 | 312,075 | 10,125 | | Aluminum | 25,195 | -130 | 3,533 | 33.85 | 450,125 | -2,250 | | Zinc | 24,230 | -155 | 3,315 | -44.64 | 98,900 | -50 | | Nickel | 137,110 | -3,150 | 17,765 | -207.72 | 286,248 | -840 | | Lead | 16,530 | -190 | 1,936 | -47.22 | 284,875 | 0 | | Tin | 392,000 | 6,760 | 49,230 | 72.00 | 8,605 | 590 | [2]