铁矿石：产业政策发酵，短期波动加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term domestic anticipation of the iron ore market is in line with expectations, and the supply - demand contradiction is continuously accumulating. Supply is growing at a high rate year - on - year, while demand is still restricted by the industrial chain profit. The futures price is mainly driven by trade restriction policies, Iranian supply disruptions, and rising shipping costs, leading to a continuous weakening of the basis. Considering the continued weakness of the steel industry chain, there is significant upward pressure. It is recommended to participate in bull spreads. The expected price range is 104 - 109 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to 790 - 825 yuan/ton for Dalian iron ore futures. The strategy is to conduct range trading and sell call options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Current overseas ore shipments have emerged from the off - season, with off - season shipments showing above - seasonal growth and reaching the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In the short term, Australia and Brazil have seen some reduction due to maintenance. There are concerns about the impact of the geopolitical factors between the US and Iran on Iran's global iron ore supply, and there are also transfer pressures from other countries. The supply of domestic ore is expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, the short - term supply pressure remains high, providing a downward driving force [2]. Demand - Domestic iron ore demand mainly depends on the profit level of steel mills and the degree of steel inventory reduction. The probability of an unexpected increase in terminal demand is low. Attention should be paid to the timing of steel inventory reduction and the intensity of resumption of work. The environmental protection restrictions in North China are about to be lifted, creating restocking demand. However, considering the low profit level of steel mills and weak demand expectations, the upward driving force of demand is weak [2]. Inventory - Steel mills are maintaining a low - inventory operation mode and are cautious in procurement. There is short - term restocking demand. Currently, port inventories are still accumulating, and the short - term port inventory pressure remains high, with the inventory driving force being downward [2].