华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, and the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term, with attention paid to macro - sentiment [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production from mid - January and resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The supply of domestic bauxite is relatively sufficient, and the price is stable. It is expected to have a certain downward space in the medium and long term. The weekly export volume of bauxite from Guinea's main ports reached 5.8082 million tons on March 6, an increase of 1.8888 million tons from the previous week. However, due to factors such as fluctuating freight and rising oil prices, the market is in a wait - and - see state [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9%, showing a post - holiday recovery. The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises is stable at 72.9%, but the export of air - conditioners is affected by the Middle East situation, restricting further improvement [3] - Although domestic social inventories are continuously accumulating, the Middle East geopolitical situation is the focus of global attention, increasing price volatility. In the short term, the Middle East situation is stalemate. With the continuous tightening of LME liquidity, overseas prices are strongly supported, while domestic prices have weak upward momentum due to high inventories and weak reality, resulting in a lower Shanghai - London ratio. It is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level [4]