申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The market will shift from "expectation-driven" to "profit-driven," entering the "selective alpha" stage. Stocks without performance support may remain weak, while sectors benefiting from policies and with improved performance may have sustainable opportunities. In the long term, the stock index trend will return to the domestic fundamentals and policies, and it is expected to resume an upward trend after the geopolitical risks ease [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) were 4658.40, 4642.00, 4591.00, and 4520.00 respectively, with price drops of -26.80, -25.20, -29.40, and -25.00. The trading volumes were 57171.00, 6223.00, 25918.00, and 8779.00, and the open interest changes were -5846.00, 1860.00, 3457.00, and 2469.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2966.40, 2964.40, 2956.00, and 2918.60, with price drops of -17.40, -18.00, -19.80, and -18.80. The trading volumes were 24548.00, 3286.00, 10650.00, and 3605.00, and the open interest changes were 16.00, 842.00, 1152.00, and 844.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 8301.00, 8256.40, 8127.20, and 7969.80, with price drops of -70.00, -71.80, -86.80, and -89.00. The trading volumes were 70893.00, 9754.00, 43053.00, and 17844.00, and the open interest changes were -2274.00, 3006.00, 933.00, and 3624.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 8277.20, 8211.40, 8043.00, and 7839.20, with price drops of -40.00, -40.00, -55.20, and -57.40. The trading volumes were 105033.00, 14197.00, 50139.00, and 18452.00, and the open interest changes were -2695.00, 3373.00, 3404.00, and 3495.00 [1] - Inter-Month Spreads: The current inter-month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were -16.40, -2.00, -44.60, and -65.80 respectively, compared to the previous values of -19.00, -0.40, -43.20, and -68.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 4687.56, 2985.34, 8359.47, and 8335.91 respectively, with percentage changes of -0.36%, 0.12%, -0.52%, and -0.33% [1] - Industry Performance: Among different industries, the energy sector had a 2.90% increase, while the raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption sectors had decreases of -0.48%, -0.64%, and -0.02% respectively. The main consumption, pharmaceutical, real estate and finance, and information technology sectors had changes of 0.08%, -0.77%, 0.01%, and -0.73% respectively. The telecommunications and public utility sectors had changes of -1.87% and 1.15% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures-Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far quarter) and the CSI 300 index were -17.50, -36.50, -83.30, and -157.90 respectively, compared to the previous values of -10.76, -28.36, -73.76, and -141.76 [1] - IH Contracts: The basis between IH contracts and the SSE 50 index were -1.54, -1.94, -8.34, and -47.14, compared to the previous values of -0.44, -1.44, -8.84, and -46.44 [1] - IC Contracts: The basis between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index were -58.47, -103.07, -232.27, and -389.67, compared to the previous values of -43.33, -86.53, -203.93, and -364.93 [1] - IM Contracts: The basis between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index were -58.71, -124.51, -292.91, and -496.71, compared to the previous values of -50.53, -118.53, -274.33, and -477.33 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4129.10, 14374.87, 8813.80, and 3317.52 respectively, with percentage changes of -0.10%, -0.63%, -0.26%, and -0.96% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S & P 500, and DAX Index were 25716.76, 54452.96, 6672.62, and 23589.65 respectively, with percentage changes of -0.70%, -1.04%, -1.52%, and -0.21% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed on the afternoon of March 12, approving the government work report, the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline, and other important documents, and passing relevant laws [2] - The US will launch two new trade investigations on the "excess industrial capacity" of 16 major trading partners including China, which may lead to new tariffs. China opposes such political manipulation, and the EU will respond firmly if the US violates trade agreements [2] - Iran's Supreme Leader issued a statement, stating that Iran will not give up revenge and will take strategic measures. Meanwhile, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [2] - International oil prices soared on March 12. The US government plans to issue a temporary exemption for the "Jones Act" to ease the fuel supply pressure. The US Energy Secretary said that the oil price is unlikely to rise to $200 [2] - The central bank governor said that the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for the economy [2] 3.6 Industry Information - From January to March 9, 82 OpenClaw vulnerabilities were collected. The National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center issued a risk warning, and the China Artificial Intelligence Industry Development Alliance will compile a risk management guide. Some banks have received regulatory risk warnings [2] - The global semiconductor industry is brewing a new round of price hikes. Texas Instruments, NXP, and Infineon will raise the prices of some products starting from April 1, with Texas Instruments' products having a maximum increase of 85% and Infineon's mainstream products having an expected increase of 5% - 15% [2] - Some airlines in China have canceled flights to Dubai again. The earliest ticket sales date is April 1 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to carry out a special action on "millisecond computing" in 50 regions to promote the development of computing - network integration [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US stock indexes declined, and the stock index fell in the previous trading session. The coal sector led the gains, while the national defense and military industry sector led the losses. The market turnover was 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.397 billion yuan to 2.642689 trillion yuan on March 10 [2] - As the annual and first - quarter reports of listed companies are gradually disclosed, industry leaders with strong performance certainty will attract funds, driving the market to shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven" [2]