首席点评：地缘冲突主导市场，供应链风险全面推高商品价格

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current global market is mainly influenced by the Middle - East geopolitical crisis. The threat of Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant reduction in the oil supply growth forecast by the IEA, causing a more than 10% surge in overnight oil prices. Geopolitical risks are spreading from the energy sector to a broader commodity supply chain, increasing global inflation uncertainty [1]. - As the earnings reports of listed companies are gradually disclosed in March, the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". Stocks without performance support may continue to be weak, while sectors benefiting from policies and with improved performance may have sustainable opportunities. In the long run, the stock index is expected to return to an upward trend after the geopolitical risks ease [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Key News on the Day 3.1.1. International News On March 12, Iran's new supreme leader threatened to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hit a US - owned oil tanker. These events caused short - term price changes in oil, gold, and the US dollar index [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News On March 12, the central bank held a symposium, stating that it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It also conducted a 245 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with 230 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News On March 12, multiple institutions issued information on the security risks and standard construction of OpenClaw/AI agents. They provided suggestions for risk prevention and started the standard - setting work [7][8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 decreased by 1.52%, the FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 8.67%, London gold decreased by 2.02%, London silver decreased by 2.27%, LME increased by 2.12%, LME copper decreased by 0.83%, LME zinc increased by 0.03%, LME nickel increased by 0.23%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 1.48%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.05%, CBOT soybeans increased by 1.10%, CBOT PH SH SES increased by 1.30%, CBOT triangular cover continuous remained unchanged, and CBOT corn increased by 1.12% [9]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - Stock Index: The US stock market declined, and the previous trading day's stock index also fell. The coal sector led the rise, while the national defense and military industry sector led the decline. The market turnover was 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.397 billion yuan on March 10. The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven" [3][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's net reverse repurchase injection was 1.5 billion yuan. Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, global risk - aversion sentiment increased, and inflation expectations rose. The short - term Treasury bond futures prices are supported, while the long - term ones are under pressure [12][13]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: SC crude oil continued to rise at night. Trump stated that the US military action against Iran would not end this week. The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves. US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week, with commercial crude oil inventories decreasing by 1.7 million barrels [2][14]. - Methanol: Methanol rose slightly at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also decreased. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the expected import volume from March 6 to 22 is 2.6 - 2.7 million tons [15]. - Rubber: Natural rubber fluctuated on Thursday. It is in the low - production season, with domestic and Thai production areas in a state of suspension. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The demand for all - steel tires is stable, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate upward [16]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins continued to rise and then fall on Thursday. The prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from some suppliers were adjusted. The increase in the Middle - East situation has a positive impact on chemicals, and the market sentiment is volatile. Future device operation needs to be monitored [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures rose and then fell. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased, while that of soda ash production enterprises also decreased. The glass inventory needs further digestion, and the soda ash industry has inventory pressure [19]. 3.3.3. Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals fluctuated and declined. The US February CPI was in line with expectations, and the oil - price impact was not reflected. The US - Iran conflict has led to rising inflation expectations and a downward revision of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, suppressing precious - metal performance. In the long run, the price of precious metals will continue to rise [20]. - Copper: The copper price decreased by 0.15% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The smelting output is still growing. The copper price may fluctuate in the short term [21]. - Zinc: The zinc price decreased by 0.25% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the smelting output is increasing. The galvanized sheet inventory is high, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [22]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price rose by 0.04% at night. The US - Iran conflict has increased the risk of overseas primary aluminum supply. The Strait of Hormuz blockage may cause a regional supply crisis. In the long run, low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand support the aluminum price [23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - Coking Coal and Coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke were strong at night. The output of five major steel products increased, and the inventory also increased, but the increase rate narrowed. The apparent demand increased significantly. After the end of environmental protection restrictions, the iron - water output is expected to rise, driving up the demand for coking coal and coke [24][25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and strengthened at night. The soybean harvest progress in Brazil is slower than the same period. The USDA report is neutral - positive, and the US soybean futures price has rebounded. The increase in shipping costs and the rumor of state - reserve replenishment have supported the domestic meal price, but the price increase is limited in the medium term due to sufficient supply [26]. - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats were strong at night. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil production, export, and inventory in Malaysia in February changed. The weak export led to a slower - than - expected inventory reduction. The rise in oil prices has driven up the vegetable - oil futures price, and the short - term price fluctuation is expected to be large [27]. - Hogs: The national average hog price was 10.04 yuan/kg, slightly down. The market is in a narrow - range shock, with regional differences. The supply of standard hogs is sufficient, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The hog price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [28]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar main contract oscillated upward. The Iran situation may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in the 26/27 sugar - crushing season. The domestic sugar price is boosted by the overseas market, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [29]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract oscillated upward. The adjustment of the market due to the Middle - East situation may be over, and the cotton price is expected to rise in the long - term due to tight supply [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index rose by 3.07%. Maersk's new cabin price to Rotterdam remained at $2200 for large containers, indicating the difficulty of maintaining high prices in the off - season. MSC slightly increased the price to $2740. As the short - term geopolitical impact eases, the European line is expected to return to seasonal pricing [3][31].