早盘速递-20260313

Group 1: Hot News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on the afternoon of March 12, approving the government work report, the "15th Five-Year Plan" outline, the national economic and social development plan for 2026, the central budget for 2026, and passing the Ecological Environment Code, the Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress, and the National Development Planning Law [2] - Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement since taking office, stating that Iran will not give up revenge, will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and will open new fronts if necessary, calling on neighboring countries to close military bases used by the United States. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report, significantly reducing the global crude oil supply growth forecast for this year from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day, and the crude oil demand growth forecast from 850,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. The IEA said that the conflict in the Middle East is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, and it is expected that global oil supply will plunge by 8 million barrels per day in March [2] - As of the week ending March 12, rebar production increased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventories increased for eight consecutive weeks, social inventories increased for ten consecutive weeks, and apparent demand increased for three consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 1.953 million tons, an increase of 219,900 tons or 12.69% from the previous week; rebar social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, an increase of 168,000 tons or 2.63% from the previous week; rebar apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, an increase of 785,800 tons or 80% from the previous week [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange decided to adjust the price limit range and trading margin ratio for certain contracts. For the gold AU2704 contract, the price limit range is 17%, the hedging position trading margin ratio is 18%, and the general position trading margin ratio is 19%. For the silver AG2703 contract, the price limit range is 20%, the hedging position trading margin ratio is 21%, and the general position trading margin ratio is 22% [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, coking coal, apples, asphalt, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - The night session performance of various commodity sectors shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 2.41%, the precious metals sector rose 29.57%, the oilseeds and fats sector rose 8.29%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 8.50%, the energy sector rose 7.37%, the chemical sector rose 14.45%, the grain sector rose 1.00%, the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.54%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.46%, and the non-ferrous metals sector rose 23.40% [4][5] Group 4: Category Asset Performance - The performance of major asset classes shows that the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.10%, a monthly decline of 0.81%, and an annual increase of 4.04%. Other equity indices such as the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and German DAX also had different levels of daily, monthly, and annual changes. In the fixed-income category, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures had positive daily changes. In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, and other commodities also showed different trends [7] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3-month copper, and others, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premium of the stock market [8]