原油：短期地缘溢价难以完全消退

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Short - term geopolitical premiums in the crude oil market are difficult to completely fade, and domestic crude oil futures will maintain high - level volatility. In the long - term, geopolitical shocks will fade, and pricing will return to fundamentals [6]. Summary by Related Content Supply - side Situation - Global crude oil supply was in a tight - balance state led by OPEC+ production cuts. In Q1 2026, OPEC+ maintained a voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia additionally cut production by 1 million barrels per day unilaterally. The planned production increase in April was disrupted by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, shifting from "active tightening" to "passive supply cut" [3]. - The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% - 25% of global seaborne crude oil trade with a daily traffic volume of about 14 million barrels, became the core flashpoint of the geopolitical conflict. After the conflict, the channel paralysis led to passive production cuts by oil - producing countries, exceeding the global idle production capacity hedging limit [3]. - China's crude oil supply was also under pressure. With an external dependence of over 70% and nearly half of imports from the Middle East, the blockage of the strait caused delays in arrivals, ship - schedule disruptions, and increased spot procurement costs. Although the crude oil import volume in Q1 remained resilient, the available domestic supply tightened [3]. Demand - side Situation - The demand side showed a pattern of "marginal recovery in China and moderate global growth". In China, in March, the operating rate of major refineries rose to about 82%, and the operating rate of local refineries gradually recovered. Crude oil processing volume and procurement demand improved month - on - month, and refined oil exports remained resilient, providing support at the spot level. However, terminal consumption was still in the recovery process, with stable gasoline and diesel demand and a slowdown in jet fuel growth, showing a "weak reality, strong expectation" feature [4]. - Globally, the IEA expected global demand to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, with a moderate growth rate. Geopolitical conflicts pushed up oil prices, raising concerns about inflation and economic slowdown and suppressing long - term demand expectations, creating a tug - of - war between bulls and bears [4]. Impact of IEA's Release of Strategic Reserves - The IEA announced the release of a total of 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves. It had a short - term pulse - like suppression on oil prices but limited long - term impact. The release scale and rhythm could not cover the daily supply gap of over 10 million barrels caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and there were logistics and time lags in the reserve release, so it could not fundamentally solve the hard constraint of the blocked channel [5]. - The release of strategic reserves mainly aimed to stabilize extreme fluctuations and relieve market panic, weakening the irrational premium of oil prices. But as long as the geopolitical conflict did not ease and the strait navigation was not restored, the supply shortage logic would still dominate pricing, and the strategic reserves could only play a phased buffering role [5].