20260313申万期货品种策略日报：双焦-20260313

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The night session of the previous day saw the main contracts of coking coal and coke strengthen, and the total position of coking coal increased compared to the previous period. This week, the output of the five major steel products increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by rebar. The overall inventory continued to increase month - on - month, but the increase rate narrowed significantly. The apparent demand increased significantly month - on - month, mainly from rebar. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, the hot metal output continued to decline month - on - month. It is expected that with the end of environmental protection restrictions and the promotion of resumption of work and production, the hot metal output will significantly rebound, driving the improvement of the rigid demand for coking coal and coke and providing support for coal prices. The repeated geopolitical situation can also push up the valuation of energy - related commodities. Future focus should be on the trend of hot metal output, mine operation, and geopolitical trends [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price and Trading Volume - Previous Day Closing Price: For coking coal, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 1466.0, 1153.0, and 1254.5 respectively; for coke, they were 1896.0, 1727.0, and 1801.5 respectively [1] - Price Changes: The price increases for coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 4.5, 8.5, and 7.0 respectively, with price increase rates of 0.31%, 0.74%, and 0.56% respectively; for coke, the price increases were 8.5, 9.0, and 8.0 respectively, with price increase rates of 0.45%, 0.52%, and 0.45% respectively [1] - Trading Volume: The trading volumes of coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 5060, 1002451, and 108346 respectively; for coke, they were 156, 166991, and 1679 respectively [1] - Open Interest: The open interests of coking coal contracts in January, May, and September were 15140, 393876, and 111895 respectively; for coke, they were 1614, 35867, and 4214 respectively. The changes in open interest were 239, - 13407, and 1126 for coking coal, and 96, 379, and 248 for coke [1] - Price Spreads: For coking coal, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively; for coke, the current price spreads were 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [1] Spot Price - The spot prices of Mongolian 5 coking coal (port self - pick - up price), low - sulfur coking coal (Linfen ex - factory price), low - sulfur fat coal (Taiyuan rail - side price), Tangshan Grade I coke (ex - factory price), Jinzhong quasi - Grade I coke (ex - factory price), and Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I coke (warehouse - out price) were 1175, 1450, 1373, 1800, 1280, and 1470 respectively, with no changes [1] Automobile Industry Data - In February, China's automobile sales were 1.04 million, a year - on - year decrease of 25.9%. Among them, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 464,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 22.1% [1]