大连商品交易所农产品日报-20260313

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The maize futures contract 2605 increased in volume and price, oscillating around the 2400 yuan mark. The spot price of maize in the Northeast was stable with an upward trend, while that in North China remained stable. The market supply of maize was tight. After the profit - taking of long positions in the maize market, attention should be paid to the impact of policies on the grain market [1]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans reached a two - year high. Domestic soybean meal futures followed the upward trend of the external market. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal decreased significantly, and the short - term long strategy was recommended [1]. - Palm Oil and Other Oils: BMD palm oil rose, and domestic oils were strong. The price of oils fluctuated with crude oil. The inventory of oils in the spot market declined, and the long - position holding strategy was recommended [1]. - Eggs: Egg futures continued to rebound. The spot price of eggs was flat. Due to sufficient supply and the off - season of demand, eggs were expected to oscillate within a range. For the long positions of the main contract, dynamic stop - profit was recommended [1]. - Pigs: Pig futures rebounded and then declined. The spot price of pigs was flat. The supply was sufficient and the demand was in the off - season. However, there was a demand for a rebound in the market, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro and spot prices on the market [1][2]. - Crude Oil: The short - term fundamentals of crude oil were strong, but there was a dispute over the duration of the Strait blockade. Oil prices might have three evolution paths depending on the development of the conflict. The current surge in oil prices was due to the re - pricing of supply security in the Middle East, and geopolitical factors dominated the market [3][4]. Group 3: Market Information - Geopolitical Negotiations: The US and Iran had differences in four core issues including negotiation scope, uranium enrichment, sanctions, and dialogue pre - conditions [3]. - Supply Blockade: Blocking the Strait of Hormuz affected 1500 - 2000 million barrels of crude oil transportation per day and cut off about 15% of global crude oil demand. Qatar's LNG export channels were mostly blocked [3]. - Passive Production Cuts: Iraq had cut nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of production, and the cut might double in the coming days [4]. - Price Projections: If the conflict eases, oil prices may fall to $95 - 100; if the situation remains the same, it will oscillate between $105 - 120; if the conflict escalates, it may reach $130 - 150 [4]. - Market Outlook: The current rise in oil prices is due to the re - pricing of supply security in the Middle East. Short - term volatility will remain high, and geopolitical factors dominate the market [4]. Group 4: Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presented the 5 - 9 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis was provided [5][6][8][9][11]. - Contract Basis: The report presented the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis was provided [13][14][17][19][25]. Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title for many years and led the team to win various awards [27]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won multiple awards and published many articles [27]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, has participated in various competitions and been interviewed by the media [27].