软商品日报-20260313

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: ICE US cotton rose 0.06% to 65.21 cents per pound on Thursday, and Zhengzhou cotton's main contract rose 0.23% to 15,545 yuan per ton, with the main contract's open interest decreasing by 2,473 lots to 741,200 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,660 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical conflicts continue to affect market expectations, and the sharp rebound in crude oil prices led to most commodity markets strengthening, but ICE US cotton futures prices showed a narrow - range shock. In the domestic market, the center of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices moved slightly higher, and the rise in crude oil prices also had a certain driving effect on cotton prices. The USDA March report increased the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 246,000 tons, with China's cotton production increased by 109,000 tons to 7.729 million tons and consumption also increased by 109,000 tons, resulting in a decrease in the inventory - to - sales ratio. From January to February, textile yarn, fabric, and clothing exports showed double - digit year - on - year growth. In the short term, the market is affected by the Middle East situation, and in the long term, new cotton planting is about to start. The market is expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term and have support in the long term, with potential upside [2]. - Sugar: As of March 11, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 88.3668 million tons, an increase of 426,400 tons or 0.48% compared to the same period last year; the sugar content of sugarcane was 12.80%, an increase of 0.22% compared to the same period last year; the sugar production rate was 11.082%, an increase of 0.269% compared to the same period last year; and the sugar production was 9.7927 million tons, an increase of 283,500 tons or 2.98% compared to the same period last year. Spot prices of sugar increased, with Guangxi sugar - making groups' quotes ranging from 5,410 to 5,510 yuan per ton, up 10 - 20 yuan; Yunnan sugar - making groups' quotes at 5,280 - 5,330 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan; and processed sugar mills' mainstream quotes ranging from 5,630 to 5,900 yuan per ton, with some increasing by 10 yuan. Due to the obstruction of cruise ship transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, the regional situation is more complex, oil prices soar, and concerns increase, causing the raw sugar futures price to rise slightly. In the domestic market, spot transactions are okay, but geopolitical influence is still significant, and the market may fluctuate. It is recommended to observe more and trade less and be vigilant about risk transmission [2]. Group 3: Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 contract spread was - 50, a decrease of 35 compared to the previous day; the main contract basis was 1,303, an increase of 150. The spot price in Xinjiang was 16,673 yuan per ton, an increase of 190, and the national spot price was 16,848 yuan per ton, an increase of 180 [3]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 contract spread was - 25, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous day; the main contract basis was 44, an increase of 37. The spot price in Nanning was 5,450 yuan per ton, an increase of 30, and in Liuzhou was 5,460 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On March 12, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 12,325, an increase of 173 from the previous trading day, with 446 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions on March 12 were 16,673 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,879 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,894 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,973 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load on March 12 was 54.1, an increase of 0.4 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 17.8, a decrease of 0.8; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 60.4, an increase of 0.1; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 25.6, a decrease of 0.2 [4]. - Sugar: On March 12, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,450 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous trading day, and in Liuzhou was 5,460 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts on March 12 was 16,342, the same as the previous trading day, with 684 valid forecasts [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][10][11][13][15][16][18]. 4. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research, participates in major projects of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and writing of China Futures Association series books, and has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has participated in large - scale projects and won many awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and has won relevant awards [22].