碳酸锂日报（2026年3月13日）-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 12, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 1.79% to 156,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 158,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate dropped by 1,250 yuan/ton to 154,500 yuan/ton, and the battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 1,500 yuan/ton to 150,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 284 tons to 36,455 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 836 tons to 23,426 tons, and the domestic production in March is expected to increase by 28% month-on-month to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in March is expected to increase by 19% month-on-month to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 24% month-on-month to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 415 tons to 98,958 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 1,890 tons to 45,647 tons, other links decreasing by 1,120 tons to 37,020 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,185 tons to 16,291 tons [3]. - From the production schedule in March, the weekly de-stocking level basically met expectations. The decline in absolute quantity is one of the core reasons for price support. The decrease in African shipments is partially offset by the increase in shipments from other regions. Due to the lag in demand data, the terminal performance is under great pressure, which is difficult to effectively boost the upstream battery sector. As it gradually enters April, it is at the end of the phased export rush. Therefore, there is still support below the price. A more definite positive factor is needed to stimulate the previous high, but it is still possible to consider bottom - fishing. Attention should also be paid to the situation in Zimbabwe [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 156,980 yuan/ton, up 1,940 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 150,000 yuan/ton, down 5,000 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,195 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 5,050 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) was 12,875 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) was 14,000 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 158,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 154,500 yuan/ton, down 1,250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 150,500 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 157,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 138,550 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 18.45 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price was 111,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,500 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 7,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price spread of CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 23,271 yuan/ton, up 1,577 yuan [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials remained unchanged, while the prices of some decreased slightly. For example, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 193,050 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The prices of most cells and batteries remained unchanged, with only the price of square lithium iron phosphate battery increasing by 0.001 yuan/Wh to 0.322 yuan/Wh [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) Asia - domestic from 2024 to 2026 [18][20]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [26][28][30]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 to March 2026 [38][41]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2026 [42].