黑色商品日报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term. The supply - demand data of rebar is neutral, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East boosts the cost of black commodities [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term. There are both bullish and bearish factors, with supply and demand in a state of intertwining [1]. - The coking coal market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term. The supply is relatively loose, while the downstream demand is unstable [1]. - The coke market is expected to run in a volatile manner in the short - term. The production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is not high, and the steel mills' attitude towards coke is still cautious [1]. - The manganese silicon market is expected to have a supported and volatile trend in the short - term. The cost side has support, and the geopolitical conflict still disturbs the market sentiment [1][3]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to run in a wide - range volatile manner in the short - term. The fundamental contradictions are limited, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of the Middle East situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures closed at 3120 yuan/ton, up 0.05 yuan/ton (0.16%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 46,200 lots in positions. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading volume was low. The national rebar production increased by 219,900 tons week - on - week to 1.953 million tons, the social inventory increased by 168,000 tons to 6.5455 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 2.3962 million tons, and the apparent demand increased by 785,800 tons to 1.7681 million tons [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract of iron ore futures i2605 closed at 795.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (1.08%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 240,000 lots and an increase of 6,000 lots in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, and the iron - making water output decreased by 63,900 tons week - on - week to 2.212 million tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 524,900 tons to 179.4732 million tons [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures closed at 1153 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton (0.74%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 13,407 lots in positions. The price of 1/3 coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The overall supply is relatively loose, and the trading activity has increased [1]. - Coke: The coke futures closed at 1727 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.52%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 379 lots in positions. The spot price at the port remained stable. The production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is not high, and there is an expectation of increased demand due to the resumption of production of steel mills [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures closed at 6162 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 2309 lots in positions. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon in various regions is about 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton. The cost side has support, and the production enterprises' start - up rate is relatively stable [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5922 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 11,557 lots in positions. The aggregated price of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions is 5480 - 5580 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are in a state of co - existence of production resumption and maintenance, and the inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: The 5 - 10 spread of rebar is - 29.0, the 10 - 1 spread is - 25.0; the 5 - 10 spread of hot - rolled coil is - 9.0, the 10 - 1 spread is - 15.0; the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore is 29.0, the 9 - 1 spread is 17.0; the 5 - 9 spread of coke is - 74.5, the 9 - 1 spread is - 94.5; the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal is - 101.5, the 9 - 1 spread is - 211.5; the 5 - 9 spread of manganese silicon is - 56.0, the 9 - 1 spread is - 26.0; the 5 - 9 spread of ferrosilicon is - 80.0, the 9 - 1 spread is - 14.0 [4]. - Basis: The basis of rebar 05 contract is 100.0, the 10 contract is 71.0; the basis of hot - rolled coil 05 contract is - 15.0, the 10 contract is - 24.0; the basis of iron ore 05 contract is 41.2, the 09 contract is 70.2; the basis of coke 05 contract is - 94.2, the 09 contract is - 168.7; the basis of coking coal 05 contract is 45.0, the 09 contract is - 56.5; the basis of manganese silicon 05 contract is - 262.0, the 09 contract is - 318.0; the basis of ferrosilicon 05 contract is - 272.0, the 09 contract is - 352.0 [4]. - Spot Prices: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3220.0, in Beijing is 3140.0, in Guangzhou is 3400.0; the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3260.0, in Tianjin is 3240.0, in Guangzhou is 3280.0; the spot price of PB powder is 788.0, super - special powder is 675.0; the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke is 1470.0; the spot price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi is 1390.0; the spot price of manganese silicon in Ningxia is 5850.0, in Inner Mongolia is 5900.0, in Guangxi is 6000.0; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5500.0, in Inner Mongolia is 5580.0, in Qinghai is 5500.0 [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The rebar futures profit is - 99.1, the long - process profit is - 23.1, the short - process profit is - 117.0; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 155.0, the rebar - iron ore ratio is 3.9, the rebar - coke ratio is 1.8, the coking coal - coke ratio is 1.5, the coking coal - iron ore ratio is 2.2, the double - silicon spread is 240.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][9][13]. - Main Contract Basis: The report provides basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][19][21]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][26][31][32][34][36]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: The report provides spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts for hot - rolled coil - rebar, rebar - iron ore, rebar - coke, coking coal - coke, coking coal - iron ore, and double - silicon [37][38][39][40]. - Rebar Profits: The report provides profit trend charts for rebar futures, long - process calculation, and short - process calculation from 2021 to 2026 [42][46].