光大期货能化商品日报（2026年3月13日）-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core logic of the crude oil market pricing is the degree and duration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which will have a historically rare impact on global supply. High - risk pricing of oil prices will continue, and the center of oil prices may further rise [1][3]. - The short - term geopolitical situation still has a significant impact on the volatility of the fuel oil, asphalt, and other product markets. Investors are advised to control risks and pay attention to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - The polyester chain is in a short - term tug - of - war between supply reduction and downstream negative feedback, and is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend [5]. - The rubber market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the external macro - atmosphere [6]. - The methanol market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and the Iranian situation, with large price fluctuations. Investors are advised to control risks [6]. - The polyolefin and PVC markets maintain a de - stocking rhythm, with relatively small fundamental pressure. Short - term geopolitical risks increase volatility, and attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Thursday, oil prices rose sharply. The WTI April contract closed up $8.48 to $95.73 per barrel, a 9.72% increase; the Brent May contract closed up $8.48 to $100.46 per barrel, a 9.22% increase; SC2604 closed at 769.8 yuan per barrel, up 57.5 yuan, an 8.07% increase [1]. - The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The IEA said that the Middle East conflict has caused the largest supply disruption in the global oil market, with the total oil production in the Middle East Gulf countries reduced by at least 10 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly 10% of global demand. The IEA also adjusted the 2026 global oil supply and demand forecasts [1]. - The core logic of crude oil market pricing is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and high - risk pricing will continue, with the oil price center likely to rise [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 rose 9.2% to 4653 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 14.83% to 5653 yuan per ton [3]. - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is in short supply, and the inventory in Singapore and Fujeirah has changed. Short - term geopolitical changes affect market volatility [3]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 rose 5.68% to 3980 yuan per ton. The downstream restocking enthusiasm increased, but the refinery processing profit decreased, and the market is in a game between "strong cost" and "weak demand" [3][5]. 3.1.4 Polyester - The polyester chain varieties such as TA605, EG2605, and PX futures rose. The PX and ethylene glycol start - up loads decreased. The market is in a tug - of - war between supply reduction and downstream negative feedback, showing a moderately strong and volatile trend [5]. 3.1.5 Rubber - On Thursday, the main rubber contracts such as RU2605, NR, and BR fell. The start - up load of domestic tire enterprises changed. The synthetic rubber price followed the cost, and the natural rubber is about to enter the tapping season. The rubber price is expected to be volatile [5][6]. 3.1.6 Methanol - The methanol price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and the Iranian situation. The supply is in high - level oscillation, the demand is at a low level, and the price is expected to be volatile [6]. 3.1.7 Polyolefin - The prices of polyolefin products such as PP and PE changed. The upstream device maintenance plan increased, the downstream demand has growth potential, and the market maintains a de - stocking rhythm [7]. 3.1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The PVC market price rose. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the calcium - carbide - based method has strong profits. The supply is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA said that the Middle East conflict has caused the largest supply disruption in the global oil market, and adjusted the 2026 global oil supply and demand forecasts [12]. - Iran's Supreme Leader said that he will not give up revenge, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. The US military has refused to escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz due to high risks [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including the closing prices of main contracts, basis of main contracts, spreads of inter - period contracts, spreads of cross - varieties, and production profits, to show the historical trends and relationships of various energy and chemical products [14][32][42][56][64]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including the deputy director, research director, and analysts of different product categories, along with their professional backgrounds, honors, and research areas [70][71][72][73].