双硅跌势暂缓，价格反弹艰难

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with a supply-demand dual-weak pattern. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. The cost support for polysilicon is weak, and the supply surplus pattern will continue due to weak demand and high inventory [7]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,680 yuan/ton and closed at 8,645 yuan/ton, a change of -0.41% from the previous day's settlement [1]. - As of the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 245,323 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on March 11, 2026, was 21,340 lots, with no change from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The prices of East China oxygenated 553 silicon, 421 silicon, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 silicon, and 99 silicon were unchanged [1]. - The social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on March 5 was 553,000 tons, a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week [1]. - After the Spring Festival, the demand for downstream polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy decreased to varying degrees, and most of the post-festival inquiries were tentative [1]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%, and the supply side gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, but the operating rate in the southwest remained low during the dry season [1]. Cost - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, providing strong cost support [2]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. Short-term range operations are recommended. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and rose, opening at 43,100 yuan/ton and closing at 42,760 yuan/ton, a change of 0.06% from the previous trading day [3]. - The position of the main contract reached 34,264 lots (34,909 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on the day was 4,644 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon declined. The price of N - type material was 42.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg (-1.25 yuan/kg), and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 357,000 tons, a change of 2.50% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 29.01 GW, a change of -2.28% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 18,800 tons, a change of 1.06% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer output was 11.08 GW, a change of 8.12% week - on - week [3]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, N - type 210mm, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.04 (-0.01) yuan/piece, 1.35 (unchanged) yuan/piece, and 1.14 (unchanged) yuan/piece respectively [4]. - The prices of battery cells and components remained stable. The demand for downstream silicon wafers and battery cells continued to weaken, and the inventory was still at a high level. The de - stocking process was difficult in the short term, and prices were unlikely to rebound significantly [6]. - In March, some large manufacturers have plans to start production, and the supply contraction will end. The output is expected to increase compared to February, while the demand side shows no obvious improvement and is expected to remain weak. The supply surplus pattern will continue [6]. Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. Short - term range operations are recommended for the main contract, which is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short term. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [7].