地缘冲突持续发酵，镍不锈钢短期震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy is the main driver of nickel price trends, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock state [1][3]. - The stainless - steel price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. Although the cost supports the price bottom, the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless - steel prices, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock state [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 136,800 yuan/ton and closed at 138,100 yuan/ton, a change of 0.59% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 491,504 (+182,325) lots, and the open interest was 212,958 (+2,115) lots [1]. - The current nickel is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to expectations of future supply shortages, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, the supply is increasing, inventories are piling up, and demand is weak, but the overall supply - demand situation is in line with expectations [1]. Nickel Ore - In the Philippines, the shipping cost shows a differentiation. The mine tender price continues to rise, and the cost - side support is continuously strengthened. In Indonesia, the price of wet - process nickel ore is rising, and the shortage of high - grade resources is intensifying. Although new quotas are being approved, the short - term supply shortage pattern is difficult to change [2]. Spot - The refined nickel market shows a shock pattern after rising and then falling. The spot premium of each brand of refined nickel is slightly adjusted, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 53,904 (-437) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,684 (-564) tons [2]. Strategy - The current supply - demand situation is weak but in line with expectations. Policy is the main driver of nickel price trends. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a high - level shock state. The strategy is mainly interval operation, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,285 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 193,031 (+42,349) lots, and the open interest was 109,003 (-4,171) lots [3][4]. - The stainless - steel price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is increasing, and the consumption after the Spring Festival is poor, with social inventories accumulating, suppressing price rebounds. Although there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, short - term demand is difficult to improve significantly [4]. Spot - Affected by the interval shock of the futures market, the spot price remains stable. Although the downstream demand has recovered, the market's acceptance of high - price goods is limited, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs, while traders actively ship goods to reduce inventory [4]. Strategy - The current price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. The high cost supports the price bottom, but the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless - steel prices. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will maintain a high - level shock state. The strategy is neutral, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies [5].