新能源及有色金属日报：霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，中东铝减产风险仍在-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices have led to concerns about overseas aluminum supply. Although Qatar has suspended production cuts after a 40% reduction, transportation disruptions still cause concerns about raw material supply. If the situation persists, the scope of production cuts may expand. In China, downstream industries are resuming production, with aluminum rods showing a de - stocking trend and aluminum ingots still slightly accumulating inventory. Export data shows high - speed growth, and the overseas supply - demand gap is expected to widen. Rising overseas electricity prices support the upward potential of aluminum prices, but the risk of recession trading due to rising oil prices should be watched out for. The alumina market remains stable, but there is a risk of rising freight rates, and the domestic supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 25,260 yuan/ton, with a change of 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 110 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 25,110 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 25,190 yuan/ton, with a change of 240 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot premium/discount has changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 25,270 yuan/ton, closed at 25,240 yuan/ton, with a change of 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,490 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 25,120 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 319,158 lots, and the position was 205,970 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.294 million tons, with a change of 23,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 358,635 tons, with a change of 7,944 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 447,300 tons, with a change of - 2,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On March 12, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,650 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,700 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,705 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,765 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 306 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,880 yuan/ton, closed at 2,865 yuan/ton, with a change of 16 yuan/ton (0.56%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 2,924 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,858 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 585,975 lots, and the position was 295,463 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 12, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,800 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 19,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,800 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 58,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 74,600 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,980 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 720 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices have led to concerns about overseas supply. Although Qatar has suspended production cuts after a 40% reduction, transportation disruptions still cause concerns about raw material supply. If the situation persists, the scope of production cuts may expand. In China, downstream industries are resuming production, with aluminum rods showing a de - stocking trend and aluminum ingots still slightly accumulating inventory. Export data shows high - speed growth, and the overseas supply - demand gap is expected to widen. Rising overseas electricity prices support the upward potential of aluminum prices, but the risk of recession trading due to rising oil prices should be watched out for [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, 50,000 tons of alumina were traded at FOB 302 US dollars/ton in East Australia for April shipment. The domestic and overseas alumina spot markets are basically stable, but there is a risk of rising freight rates due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The domestic supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and social inventory is still rising. New production capacity in Guangxi is imminent. Although the price of bauxite has risen slightly, it will not affect alumina production for the time being. The pressure of expiring warehouse receipts in the next three months is not large, and the inter - month spread is conducive to alleviating the release of warehouse receipt pressure, but the contradiction between the premium of the futures market over the spot warehouse receipts is increasing [7][8].