海峡通行量维持低位，LPG到岸价格高位运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The passage of LPG ships through the Strait remains at a low level, and the CIF price of LPG is at a high level. If the passage of the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, the supply of Middle East oil and LPG will be significantly tightened. Currently, the conflict between Iran and the US and Israel continues, more energy infrastructure is being attacked, and the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz has not significantly recovered. The number of LPG ships passing through as of March 12 remains low. On the spot side, the domestic LPG price rose locally yesterday. The spot price of civil LPG in Shandong was driven up by the increase in crude oil prices, and there is still room for short - term low - price increases. The price of ether - post - carbon - four in Shandong has corrected from high levels and risen at low levels, with a good trading atmosphere [1] 3. Market Analysis 3.1 Regional Prices on March 12 - Shandong market: 5050 - 5450 yuan; North China market: 5550 - 5650 yuan; East China market: 5900 - 6360 yuan; Yangtze River area market: 6010 - 6330 yuan; Northwest market: 5400 - 5600 yuan; South China market: 6080 - 6200 yuan [1] 3.2 CIF Prices in April 2026 - In the first half of April 2026, the CIF price of frozen goods in East China was 925 US dollars/ton for propane and 925 US dollars/ton for butane, both up 45 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted price was 7022 yuan/ton for propane and 7022 yuan/ton for butane, both up 345 yuan/ton. In South China, the same price and increase trends applied [1] 3.3 Impact of Strait Passage and Market Conditions - Although the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, if the passage of the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the supply of Middle East oil and LPG will tighten. The conflict between Iran and the US and Israel continues, and energy infrastructure is under attack. The number of LPG ships passing through is low as of March 12. Some oil tankers may turn off AIS signals, causing statistical omissions. The domestic LPG price rose locally, with Shandong civil LPG spot prices rising due to crude oil, and Shandong ether - post - carbon - four prices correcting from high levels and rising at low levels [1]