低硫燃料油裂解走强，高低硫价差显著反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, be aware of high market volatility [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, be aware of high market volatility [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Although Trump made remarks about the end of the war, the conflict between Iran and the US - Israel has not ceased, and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed. The number of passing oil tankers remains low. Measures such as releasing strategic oil reserves cannot solve the key supply bottleneck [2] - The high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) has relatively prominent exposure and elasticity to geopolitical risks. There is also an incremental substitution demand for natural gas and crude oil in power generation and refinery terminals. The significant increase in the cracking spread of gasoline and diesel (especially diesel) boosts the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil. The tightening of Middle East crude oil supply leads to a decline in the production of low - sulfur fuel oil, and more ships choose ports in Asia - Pacific for refueling, strengthening the market structure [2] - The cracking spread, monthly spread, and spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil have risen significantly. The low - high sulfur price spread has rebounded significantly from a low level. In terms of valuation, low - sulfur fuel oil has more room to reach the historical peak compared to high - sulfur fuel oil [2] 3. Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 9.2% at 4,653 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 14.83% at 5,663 yuan/ton [1] 4. Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance and pay attention to high market volatility [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance and pay attention to high market volatility [3] - No strategies are recommended for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [3] 5. Figures Summary - The report presents multiple figures on fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, including spot prices, swap near - month contracts, monthly spreads, futures contract closing prices, and trading volume and open interest, with units of US dollars/ton or yuan/ton and hands [4]