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Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Downstream consumption continues to recover, and the zinc price is expected to perform well in the long - term, but there are concerns about recession trading due to rising oil prices [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$41.31 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,310 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan from the previous trading day and a spot premium of -120 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,340 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan and a spot premium of -90 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,320 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan and a spot premium of -110 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On March 12, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,245 yuan per ton, closed at 24,300 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 109,003 lots, and the open interest was 72,726 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,460 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,095 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 268,800 tons, with a change of 6,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 98,750 tons, with a change of -150 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Downstream construction is continuously recovering, but market transactions are generally quiet. Downstream buyers only make purchases based on rigid demand, and it is difficult to repair the spot discount. There are still short - term disruptions in the zinc ore supply. Although the Middle East crisis has shown signs of easing, there are continuous risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and transportation is still hindered. The spot quotation TC of imported zinc ore is around $10 per ton, and the ore price supports the zinc price. Although the by - product profit is substantial, due to the rising overseas energy costs, the probability of overseas smelting restart is small. The domestic smelting loss is continuously narrowing, and there is still enthusiasm for supply. Downstream consumption has entered the post - holiday resumption stage, and the inventory inflection point is expected to arrive. There are still good expectations for domestic and overseas consumption, and the zinc price is expected to perform well in the long - term, but attention should be paid to the concerns about recession trading caused by the continuous rise in oil prices [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [5]