下游维持刚需采购，铅价震荡走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand but slow inventory reduction. The loss of secondary lead production leads to a slower - than - expected resumption of production, which supports the lead price. However, before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract next week, the inventory transfer and warehousing by holders will bring pressure on the increase of visible inventory. The lead price is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, operating in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations according to the above range [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 12, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.99/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,475 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,525 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,475 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount remained unchanged at 16,525 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 12, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,645 yuan/ton and closed at 16,615 yuan/ton, a change of -65 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume during the whole trading day was 30,328 lots, a change of -10,640 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position during the whole trading day was 62,266 lots, a change of 1,183 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,665 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,600 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/ton and closed at 16,595 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. Downstream battery enterprises still maintain rigid - demand procurement. The spot market has relatively abundant circulating supplies of primary lead, secondary lead, and imported lead, and downstream buyers have more choices. The spot market transactions are scattered [2] Inventory - On March 12, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 77,000 tons, a change of 2,800 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 12, the LME lead inventory was 284,500 tons, a change of -375 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]