EG负荷继续下降，港口开始去库

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - EG load continued to decline and port inventory started to decrease. As of March 12, the total MEG inventory in the main ports in East China was 92.7 tons, a decrease of 4.6 tons from Monday [1]. - On the domestic supply side, the EG load decreased due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply. Overseas, imports from the Middle East, especially affected by the situation in Iran, are expected to shrink further. On the demand side, polyester and weaving loads are gradually recovering after the Spring Festival. Recent rising raw material prices have spurred speculative demand and inventory reduction. Polyester products have little inventory pressure, but potential negative impacts on downstream production due to high - cost raw materials need attention [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,653 yuan/ton (up 76 yuan/ton, +1.66% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,733 yuan/ton (up 258 yuan/ton, +5.77% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China was -58 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan/ton from the previous day) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was -101 US dollars/ton (up 33 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -211 yuan/ton (up 296 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - Not elaborated in the text, only mentions a chart about the international price difference of "US FOB - China CFR" [21] Downstream Sales and Production, and Operating Rate - After the Spring Festival, polyester and weaving loads are gradually recovering. Recent rising raw material prices have spurred some speculative demand and inventory reduction. Polyester products have little inventory pressure, but potential negative impacts on downstream production due to high - cost raw materials need attention [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports in East China was 106.8 tons (up 6.6 tons). The main ports continued to accumulate inventory last week, and the current inventory is still high. This week, the planned arrivals in the main ports in East China total 7.8 tons, and in the secondary ports 1.2 tons [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. The fundamentals are improving marginally under high inventory. De - stocking may start in late March, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to increase in April. Short - term attention should be paid to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz and changes in EG plants. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the 5 - 9 spread due to supply impacts. Pay attention to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz. - Inter - commodity: No strategy provided [3]