中辉农产品观点-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term Bullish Fluctuations: This includes soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. The reasons involve factors such as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, rainfall in Argentina, and export data of palm oil [1]. - Bullish Fluctuations: Cotton is expected to have bullish fluctuations. The outer market is affected by the general rise of bulk commodities, while the domestic Zhengzhou cotton is affected by the crude - oil chain. However, there is still a callback pressure due to the high internal - external price difference [1]. - Under Pressure: Red dates are under pressure. Although the trading sentiment is strengthened by external factors, the supply - demand pattern in the off - season is loose, and the inventory removal is basically stagnant [1]. - Beware of Rebounds: For live pigs, the short - term market is under pressure, but there may be a rebound in the far - month contracts. The supply side has a large pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3054 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3401.14 yuan/ton, up 1.72% [2]. - Market Situation: There are concerns about short - term soybean supply in the domestic market, but the overall supply is sufficient. In the context of the impact of crude oil and South American weather, the market sentiment is bullish, and soymeal is expected to fluctuate bullishly this week, but be cautious about chasing long positions [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2492 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2702.63 yuan/ton, up 1.50% [4]. - Market Situation: Domestic rapeseed will arrive at ports successively in March and later, but it is still lower than the same period last year. With a low - inventory state, the spot side has no pressure. It followed soymeal to close higher yesterday and is bullish in the short term [1][6]. Palm Oil - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9684 yuan/ton, up 1.66% from the previous day. The national average price was 9753 yuan/ton, up 2.88% [7]. - Market Situation: The Strait of Hormuz incident and the good export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of March have led to a short - term bullish trend. However, be cautious about chasing long positions, and treat it as an event - driven short - term market [1][8]. Cotton - Price Information: The main contract CF2605 closed at 15545 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 16848 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [9]. - Market Situation: The outer market is affected by the rise of bulk commodities but is restricted by the strengthening of the US dollar. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton is affected by the crude - oil chain. Although there is a callback pressure due to the high internal - external price difference, the bullish sentiment is strong in the peak season [1][12]. Red Dates - Price Information: The main contract CJ2605 closed at 9080 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day. The spot prices of various regions were basically stable [13]. - Market Situation: The trading sentiment of the Zhengzhou red - date market is strengthened by external factors, but the supply - demand pattern in the off - season is loose, and the inventory removal is stagnant. Be cautious about the rebound height [1][14]. Live Pigs - Price Information: The main contract Ih2605 closed at 11130 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 10040 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [15]. - Market Situation: The supply side has a large pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. The short - term market is under pressure, but the far - month contracts may have a rebound opportunity [1][17].