宏观经济周报：海外滞胀交易趋势深化-20260313

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - February US non-farm employment data significantly underperformed market expectations, continuing a slowdown trend since the end of 2025[1] - The unemployment rate has increased but remains within a controllable range, while labor participation rate has slightly decreased after population control adjustments[1] - Recent oil price increases are expected to raise overall US inflation by approximately 0.6 percentage points, complicating future Federal Reserve decisions[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Environment - Exports in January-February exceeded expectations due to the impact of the Spring Festival, tax rebate policy adjustments, and improved overseas manufacturing sentiment[3] - February's Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, driven by rising prices in the non-ferrous and oil sectors, while downstream prices remain weak[3] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rebounded significantly, with core services performing strongly due to holiday consumption, while core goods faced demand constraints[3] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - Strong signals were released during the Two Sessions regarding stable growth, expanding domestic demand, and promoting reforms, with a focus on fiscal and financial collaboration[3] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, potentially affecting market risk appetite and leading to policy adjustments in response to unexpected economic changes[2]