美国主导的科技繁荣本质是债务幻觉

Core Insights - The essence of the U.S.-led technological boom is a debt illusion, with global debt expansion being a macroeconomic response to long-term structural deflationary pressures caused by technological advancements [3][57] - The global economy has shifted from being productivity-driven to credit-driven, where the contribution of debt to demand consistently outweighs that of technology [3][57] - Debt creates nominal demand through fiscal stimulus, household and corporate leverage, central bank quantitative easing (QE) wealth effects, and the spillover of U.S. dollar liquidity, while technological progress primarily influences nominal demand indirectly and over the long term [3][57] Group 1: Debt Expansion and Its Mechanisms - Debt expansion directly boosts nominal demand through multiple channels, including increased government spending and transfer payments, which stimulate domestic demand and imports [18][22] - In a low-interest-rate environment, households and businesses increase leverage, leading to consumption expansion and higher asset prices [22][25] - Central bank QE elevates asset prices, creating a wealth effect that releases trillions of dollars in purchasing power [25][28] Group 2: Technological Progress and Its Impact - Technological advancements enhance production efficiency and create new products, leading to long-term increases in actual income and welfare [34][35] - New technologies generate new industries and consumption scenarios, driving investment cycles in technology and related capital goods [38][40] - However, the impact of technology on nominal demand is more indirect and long-term compared to the immediate effects of debt expansion [47][48] Group 3: U.S. and China Economic Divergence - The global division of labor may collapse, leading to a fundamental reversal in global supply and demand structures, with significant economic path divergence between the U.S. and China [89][90] - The U.S. may face a long-term stagnation dilemma due to manufacturing hollowing out and rising commodity prices, while China could transition to a moderate inflation path supported by its complete manufacturing system [89][90] - China's actual demand is expected to rise over the long term, supporting the intrinsic value of its assets, while the U.S. reliance on nominal demand expansion may lead to a revaluation of the yuan and Chinese assets [3][57]