原油日报：海峡仍处于中断状态，油价继续飙升-20260313

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the Hormuz Strait still closed, the Iran conflict has turned into an economic war. The US has further relaxed sanctions on Russian oil, and the US Energy Secretary said they would escort the Hormuz Strait. There are two possible outcomes: 1) The strait re - opens, oil prices drop significantly, and the energy crisis eases; 2) The strait remains interrupted, oil prices rise in a self - destructive way, leading the energy crisis to turn into an economic crisis, hitting the global aviation and shipping industries first [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $8.48 to $95.73 per barrel, a 9.72% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery in London rose $8.48 to $100.46 per barrel, a 9.22% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 8.07% at 770 yuan per barrel [1]. - The US issued a license allowing the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on ships since March 12, and such sales can be made before 00:01 on April 11, Eastern Time [1]. - To make up for the loss caused by the supply interruption in the Hormuz Strait, the emergency release of oil reserves may take weeks to get on board and longer to reach the final destination. Analysts said most countries' oil reserves take about two weeks to release. US strategic oil reserves can enter the market within 13 days after the president's decision, but it takes 45 days to transport to Asia. The US, Japan and other countries will release about 400 million barrels of oil, and the previous maximum release rate was 1.3 million barrels per day, which can only make up less than one - tenth of the current supply interruption [1]. - On March 12, Brazil's Finance Minister Haddad announced a temporary 12% tax on oil exports [1]. - On March 12, the Iraqi oil minister said they would continue to produce 1.4 million barrels of crude oil per day. The oil export business in the southern region has been suspended, and they are looking for alternative export plans. 200,000 barrels of crude oil are transported through storage facilities via Turkey, Syria and Jordan. The attacked tanker on Wednesday was not Iraqi and carried naphtha. They will sign an agreement on oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline [1]. Investment Logic - The Hormuz Strait is still closed, and the new supreme leader of Iran claims to continue the blockade. The Iran conflict has become an economic war. There are two possible future scenarios: the strait re - opens with falling oil prices and easing energy crisis, or it remains closed with soaring oil prices and an energy - to - economic crisis transition hitting aviation and shipping industries [2]. Strategy - Due to the short - term high volatility of oil prices affected by geopolitical situations, the risk of participating in the crude oil market is high. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks [3].