伊朗新领袖发表首份声明，金油跷跷板效应凸显

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Emphasize the tail risk of the Iran situation, which has a significant impact on the prices of crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and may drive up the prices of oil - chemical and oilseed products, while also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the Two Sessions. The US economy shows signs of slowdown, and China's economic data shows some positive trends [2] - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation of the US and Israel, and there is a risk of the US increasing troops. The tail risk of the Iran situation has risen sharply [1] - The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas, disrupted the production and supply chain, and severely blocked the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. The continuous rise in oil prices has driven up oil - chemical and oilseed products and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that Iran will not give up revenge, will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and may open new fronts if necessary [1][6] Domestic Two Sessions - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan (an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year), and a general public budget expenditure scale of 30 trillion yuan for the first time (an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan from the previous year). An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [2] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure. After the Two Sessions, the stock index rebounds, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals, and oil prices are inversely correlated. Rising inflation reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts and increases the risk of recession [3] - The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Japan will release about 80 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, Germany will release 2.4 million tons of reserves, and the US will start releasing SPR next week [3][6] - The conflict has led to the largest - ever supply disruption, with a daily reduction of 8 million barrels in global oil supply this month and a more than 90% drop in the transit flow of the Strait of Hormuz [3][6] - Oil price increases have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol, and the oilseed products in the agricultural sector are also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices [3] - The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [4]