盘面波动率处于高位，关注3月下半月运价修正情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The volatility of the market is high, and attention should be paid to the freight rate correction in the second half of March [1]. - For the EC2604 contract approaching delivery, investors are advised to closely follow the spot market, operate flexibly, and consider the profit - loss ratio [7]. - The expectations for the contracts in June, July, and August (relatively peak seasons) are strong, but the actual freight rates are still uncertain. Investors need to respond flexibly [8]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online Quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes 1405/2250 for WEEK13; HPL's quotes for the second half of March range from 2135 - 3555 dollars/FEU, and 2895/4855 for the first half of April [1]. - Geopolitical Situation: Iran's new supreme leader's speech indicates the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and threats to attack US military bases if they are not withdrawn [4]. - Static Supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while in 2027, 2028, and 2029, the annual delivery volume of 17,000 + TEU ships exceeds 40 [4]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 4 weeks of March is 320,700 TEU, and 324,900 TEU in April. There are 8 blank sailings in March and 2 TBNs in April [5]. - Contract Situation: The EC2604 contract is approaching delivery. Shipping companies are trying to support prices in the off - season. Most shipping companies have announced emergency fuel surcharges, which may increase the valuation of near - month contracts. The transfer of ships from the Middle East to the European route increases supply pressure and may affect European freight rates [6]. - Peak - Season Contracts: The contracts for June, July, and August have strong expectations. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand from Asia to Europe [8]. - Market Data: As of March 12, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 58,270 lots, and the daily trading volume is 91,865 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, and the SCFI and SCFIS prices on different routes are also given [9]. 3.2 Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: None [10]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [10].