双焦：地缘冲突扰动持续，煤炭价格有支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the coking coal futures market has large fluctuations, mainly following the changes in oil, gas, and chemicals, with capital and sentiment trading as the main factors, and the weight of its own fundamentals decreasing. The price of coking coal is expected to follow the trend of oil and gas and remain strong with large fluctuations before the conflict eases or ends. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and in the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate widely without a clear trend. It is recommended to buy on dips and conduct band trading [5]. - The price of coking coal spot has stabilized and rebounded, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has recovered. The coal mine production capacity utilization rate continues to rise, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, which will restrict the upward space of coking coal prices. The supply and demand of coke are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to remain stable in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the possibility of a price increase in the future [5][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Coking Coal Market Analysis: The coking coal futures market is mainly affected by capital and sentiment, and its own fundamentals are secondary. The price is expected to follow the trend of oil and gas. The spot market sentiment has improved, and some coal prices have increased. The supply of coking coal in China is mainly domestic, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on supply is limited [5]. - Trading Strategies: In the short - term, coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips from the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio. In the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to conduct band trading. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Coal Substitution for Oil and Gas: As the prices of international oil, gas, and downstream chemical products rise, the price of international coal also increases. There are two main substitution paths: chemical substitution (mainly replacing crude oil and supplemented by natural gas) and energy substitution (mainly replacing natural gas and supplemented by crude oil). The chemical substitution effect is stronger than the energy substitution effect in the domestic market [7]. - Other Influencing Factors: The spill - over of sentiment and capital leads to an overall increase in the valuation of the energy sector, which reacts faster than the fundamental transmission. The increase in oil prices and insurance premiums raises the international trade transportation cost and the cost of imported coal [12][13]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Coking Coal: The spot price of coking coal has rebounded, the production capacity utilization rate of coal mines continues to rise, the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, the demand for coke is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [16]. - Coke: The price of coke has remained stable, the production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to recover in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the inventory has decreased, and the profit shows a certain differentiation [17]. - Production and Operation of Coal Mines: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has increased, the daily output of raw coal and clean coal has increased, and the inventory has decreased [20]. - Import of Mongolian Coal: The customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports is at a high - level shock, and the inventory pressure is relatively large [22]. - Iron Water Production: Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the iron water production has declined, and it is expected to recover next week [31]. - Price and Basis Data: The report provides price trends and basis data of coking coal, imported coking coal, coke, etc., as well as the spread data between different contracts [36][46][49]