Yin He Qi Huo·2026-03-13 07:51Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Recent iron ore prices have rebounded rapidly from the bottom due to geopolitical conflicts, supply disturbances in the iron ore itself, and seasonal factors. However, the current iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. With the rapid increase in iron ore prices, the valuation of the futures market is high, and the risk of further chasing the rise is large. It is recommended that spot enterprises focus on high - level hedging [4]. Group 3: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Logic Analysis: The rapid rebound of iron ore prices is due to geopolitical conflicts, supply disturbances in the iron ore itself, and seasonal factors. The global iron ore shipment is still at a high level, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the fundamentals may continue to weaken. The port inventory of imported iron ore is at a high level in the past few years, but the actual liquid port inventory may be at a neutral level [4]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, spot high - level hedging is recommended; for arbitrage, enter the market for high - level reverse arbitrage of the May/September spread; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [4]. Group 4: Core Logic Analysis of Iron Ore Global Iron Ore Shipment - From 2026 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 30.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6% (27 million tons). Among them, the weekly shipment from Australia is 17.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% (12 million tons), and the weekly shipment from Brazil is 6.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% (4 million tons). The shipments of major overseas mines are at a high level year - on - year, and the shipments in the first half of the year are expected to continue to have a high increase [7]. Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment - From 2026 to date, the weekly average of non - Australia and Brazil iron ore shipments is 6.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% (14 million tons). The weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments from Australia is 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% (1.4 million tons), and the weekly average of non - mainstream iron ore shipments from Brazil is 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% (1.2 million tons) [9]. Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - The port inventory of imported iron ore has increased slightly week - on - week, the port congestion has decreased slightly, the steel mill inventory has decreased slightly, and the total inventory of imported iron ore in China has decreased slightly week - on - week. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the supply - demand pattern of domestic iron ore remains loose [11]. Domestic Terminal Manufacturing Steel Demand - In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real estate new construction was 19%, and the year - on - year decline in sales area was 17%; the year - on - year decline in infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 12%, and the year - on - year decline in manufacturing investment growth was 11%. From 2026 to date, the domestic hot metal output has increased by 0.5% (8 million tons) year - on - year, the crude steel output has decreased by 0.8% (17 million tons) year - on - year, the building materials apparent demand has decreased by 3% (19 million tons) year - on - year, the non - building materials apparent demand has remained basically the same year - on - year, and the domestic crude steel consumption has decreased by 1.2% (19 million tons) year - on - year [13]. Overseas Demand - In 2025, the overseas iron ore consumption decreased by 1% (90 million tons) year - on - year, but the overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.5% (370 million tons) year - on - year, continuously contributing to the increase. Among them, the crude steel output in India overseas increased by 10% (15.5 million tons) year - on - year in 2025, and the crude steel demand in India overseas remained at a relatively high level [13]. Group 5: Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking Imported Iron Ore Port Price - The report provides data on the Platts iron ore price index, the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port, the price of Carajas fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade fines [20]. Imported Iron Ore Port Profit - The report shows the import profits of PB fines, Carajas fines, Super Special fines, Jinbuba fines, PB lumps, and FMG [22]. East China Mainstream Steel Mill Profit - The report presents the cash profit of East China rebar, the cash profit of East China hot - rolled coil, the cost of East China hot metal (excluding tax), the cash cost of East China hot - rolled coil, the cost of East China billet (excluding tax), and the cash cost of East China rebar [24]. Domestic and Overseas US Dollar Spread - The report includes data on the spread between SGX and DCE contracts, the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the difference between East China hot metal and recycled steel (excluding tax) [26]. Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread - The report provides data on the basis of the optimal delivery product and different contracts, and the inter - period spreads such as 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 [28]. Global Four Major Mines Shipment - The report shows the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [30]. Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - The report presents the port inventory of different types of iron ore, including powder, lumps, pellets, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australia and Brazil iron ore [32].