股指期货早报2026.3.13：美伊冲突事件瞬息万变，A股继续震荡-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 213,000, lower than the expected 215,000 and the previous value of 214,000, indicating a stable labor market. The annualized total number of new housing starts in the US in January was 1.487 million, higher than the expected 1.348 million and the previous value of 1.387 million, indicating the resilience of the US real - estate market. Due to the recent data resilience and geopolitical instability in the US, the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has further decreased, with the probability of a 25BP interest - rate cut starting in June as low as 19.5% [1] - On the domestic market, on Thursday, the broader market opened lower and fluctuated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96%. The market showed a volatile adjustment trend. Geopolitical risks have increased oil prices, which has put pressure on market risk appetite. The A - share market has seen an increase in oil and gas and their substitute sectors such as coal and electricity. The extension of the US - Iran conflict has led to a stagflation - like trend in the market. In the short term, the broader market faces significant pressure at the 4,200 - point level, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - Trump stated that the US is the top oil - producing country and makes a lot of money when oil prices rise, and it is important to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons [4] - The market has reduced its bets on the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year to 20 basis points, less than one cut. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates immediately [4] - Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba issued a statement saying that Iran will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new fronts may be opened if necessary [4] - The Israeli military claimed to have carried out large - scale attacks on the infrastructure in the Iranian capital, and a US tanker crashed in Iraq [4] - Iranian diplomatic officials said that some countries' ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If coordinated with the Iranian navy, many ships can still pass. There are no mines laid. Media reported that two Indian oil tankers were approved to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iranian sources denied it. There is also market news that Iran attacked a US oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz [4] - The Trump administration plans to suspend the Jones Act to stabilize oil prices [5] - The central bank held a symposium of economic and financial experts, stating that in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [5] - Trump said that he will launch new trade investigations against trading partners including China. China responded that tariff and trade wars are not in the interests of any party, and both sides should negotiate and resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [5] - Minister of Justice He Rong said that this year, the government will focus on solving "involution - style" competition through legislation and will accelerate research on legislation in fields such as artificial intelligence [5] - The National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center issued a risk warning for the application of OpenClaw in the industrial field [6] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, open interest, and other data of futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. For example, the Shanghai 50 index closed at 2,972, down 0.46%. For the Shanghai 50 futures contract IIH2603, the closing price was 2,966.4, down 0.58% [8] - It also shows the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading amount, trading amount changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly position increases, net positions, etc. of various futures contracts [9] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading amounts, and other data of various spot market indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. For instance, the Wind All - A Index was at 6,814, down 0.53%. The Shanghai Composite Index was at 4,129, down 0.10% [33] - It analyzes the impact of market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, including daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [34][35][36] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report includes the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels, presenting the trends of money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection, as well as the levels of different - term Shibor interest rates [46]