棉花周报：郑棉再度走强，注意上方压力-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened again after fluctuations this week. The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran initially suppressed Zhengzhou cotton, but with the weakening of macro - impacts, it chose to rise. Strong export data supports demand, and yarn prices also increased after the rise in cotton prices, indicating a stable cotton market. Attention should be paid to the planting area in major production areas, and the expected issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas has limited short - term negative impact. The internal - external price difference is expected to narrow [53]. - Internationally, the global cotton production forecast has been raised by over 1.1 million bales due to increased planting in Brazil and improved yields in China, partially offset by reduced production in Argentina. Global consumption is down 140,000 bales, with weak consumption in many countries partially offset by increased consumption in China. The global inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased by 1 percentage point to 64%, showing a pattern of stable supply - demand in US cotton, increased supply and weakening demand globally, and a slight increase in inventory pressure. The rumor of China issuing import quotas has boosted the US cotton market, and official confirmation is awaited [53]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on range - band trading [54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton strengthened slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.78%. ICE cotton rebounded, with a weekly increase of 2.88% [10]. 3.1.2 Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 243 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose by 265 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import - In December, 180,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons [19]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory - In the second half of February, the commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, and the commercial inventory continued to decline [21]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory - In February, the yarn inventory was 21.45 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.87 days. The grey cloth inventory was 33.24 days, a year - on - year increase of 3.81 days [29]. 3.1.6 Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of 10 - count airflow - spun cotton yarn increased by 70 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn increased by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn increased by 70 yuan/ton [34]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 53. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,325, and the valid forecasts were 446, totaling 12,771 [39]. 3.1.8 Seed Cotton Purchase - Not elaborated in depth in the report, only the price data of Xinjiang seed cotton purchase is presented [42][43]. 3.1.9 US Cotton Export - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of March 5th, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 253,200 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 36,600 bales [47]. 3.1.10 US Weather - The drought situation in the US is as follows: the area with abnormally dry conditions (D0) accounts for 21.0%, moderate drought (D1) accounts for 25.3%, severe drought (D2) accounts for 14.8%, extreme drought (D3) accounts for 5.5%, exceptional drought (D4) accounts for 0.3%, and the total drought - affected area (D1 - D4) accounts for 45.9% [50]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened after fluctuations. The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran initially suppressed the price, but with the weakening of macro - impacts, it chose to rise. Strong export data supports demand, and yarn prices increased. Attention should be paid to the planting area in major production areas, and the expected issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas has limited short - term negative impact. The internal - external price difference is expected to narrow [53]. - Internationally, the global cotton production forecast has been raised, consumption has decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased. The rumor of China issuing import quotas has boosted the US cotton market, and official confirmation is awaited [53]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on range - band trading [54].